The 2025 Australian Open is winding down, and our first semifinal features 10-time Aussie Open champ Novak Djokovic against Alexander Zverev.
Djokovic vs Zverev prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Zverev moneyline (+137 at bet365) - My best bet
Zverev +2.5 games (-120 at bet365)
Match analysis
It’s been nearly one year to the day when Novak Djokovic entered Rod Laver Arena as an overwhelming favorite to defeat Jannik Sinner. Joker would lose to the eventual champion as Sinner would go on to defeat another heavy favorite (Daniil Medvedev) to hoist his first major title.
The Serbian legend has an injured leg this year, which he suffered in his quarterfinal victory over Carlos Alcaraz. Novak's lost at least one set in four of five leading up to Friday, and he’s got his hands full with Alexander Zverev.
Since 2020, Zverev is second to Djokovic in Grand Slam semifinal appearances (9). His record against the legend is a miserable 4-8, but he’s won two of the past four meetings and has lost only two sets en route to his date with the legend.
The German No. 1 isn’t going to toy around with a wounded Joker the way Alcaraz did. I expect Zverev to pound away with his monster serve and aggressive baseline game that will likely take Djokovic on more East-West trips than an airline pilot would. He'll reach his third career major finale.
Best best analysis
Zverev has some battle scars from years of disappointment during the latter stages of a major.
The two have gone the distance in five of their previous six encounters, and with Novak injured, there isn’t a way in the world Joker should be able to break out the broom against a fit and hopefully hungry Zverev.
Djokovic is coming off a major-less 2024 and hasn’t looked like a 24-time major champ except during his Gold Medal victory last summer in Paris.
He’s gotten through to this point with a combination of guile and guts, but I don’t believe he’s leaving Rod Laver Arena with a straight-set victory.
I'd make this bet and the exact prediction with a healthy Novak. Zverev has too much experience to get blanked or step off the court with another heartbreaking loss in his 10th major semifinal since 2020.
Djokovic vs Zverev odds
| (7) Novak Djokovic | (2) Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| -165 | Moneyline | +125 |
| -2.5 (-115) | Game spread | +2.5 (-110) |
| Over 40.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 40.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 22, 2025.
How to watch Djokovic vs Zverev
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, AU |
| Date | Thursday, 1-23-2025 |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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