The second Australian Open semifinal pits defending champion and World No. 1 Jannik Sinner against big-serving American Ben Shelton.
Sinner is riding a four-match winning streak over Friday’s opponent, but my Sinner vs. Shelton predictions bet that Shelton keeps this matchup closer than the Australian Open odds believe. Join me as I share my Australian Open free betting picks for Friday, January 24.
Sinner vs Shelton prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Sinner moneyline (-1600 at FanDuel) - My best bet
Both players to win a set: Yes (+122 at FanDuel)
Match analysis
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is coming off a dream season where he won everything under the sun, including a solid, four-set victory over heavily favored Daniil Medvedev to take home his first major title this time last year.
He went on to win nearly every major hardcourt title except for Indian Wells. He’s now the World No. 1, and the only dark cloud hanging over his head is a possible lengthy suspension for failing a March PEDS test.
The Italian No. 1 is not only one of the best servers in the game, but his return game ranks second on the ATP Tour and is No. 1 on the ATP leaderboard in pressure stats. Ben
Shelton's big banging serve has forced one tiebreaker in all five of their previous meetings, but his inconsistent ground game and confusing patterns are a stark contrast to the big-hitting and far more consistent Italian.
Best best analysis
Shelton has faced only one seeded player during his run to the semis. He needed four sets to defeat Lorenzo Musetti but has had trouble in nearly every match.
Despite the easier path, Shelton would need to play the match of his life to defeat the defending champ. That said, he can force a couple of tiebreakers and maybe even steal one.
Tiebreakers have been Shelton’s Achilles heel, but he’s won five of the seven he’s forced, which is much better than his past 52-week tiebreak win rate of 47%. That’s why I believe Shelton can take at least one set. He and Sinner have played some close sets in the past, but Bennie bailed in the breakers and failed to compete.
I don’t think he’ll back down from Sinner, so I’m taking a chance on each player winning a set. This match will come down to who's better in the breakers. Big Bennie may not win, but he's improving enough under pressure (60%) for me to bet he snags a set on Friday.
Sinner vs Shelton odds
| (1) Jannik Sinner | (21) Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| -2000 | Moneyline | +1100 |
| -5.5 (-115) | Game spread | +5.5 (-115) |
| Over 33.5 (-110) | Total games | Under 33.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 22, 2025.
How to watch Sinner vs Shelton
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, AU |
| Date | Thursday, 1-23-2025 |
| Time | TBD p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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