World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is set to defend his Australian Open title when he meets No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev in the finals of the 2025 Australian Open.
While Sinner is the overwhelming favorite, my Zverev vs. Sinner predictions anticipate a slugfest between two of the best hardcourt players on the planet.
Join me as I break down the Australian Open odds and share my free betting picks for Sunday, January 26.
Sinner vs Zverev prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Zverev ML (+245 at FanDuel) - My best bet
Over 39.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)
Match analysis
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner burst on the scene one year ago, defeating Novak Djokovic in the semis before finishing Daniil Medvedev in five sets to win his first Australian Open title.
Sinner recorded a 53-3 hardcourt mark, including a straight-set victory over Taylor Fritz to win the US Open.
Dating back to October, Sinner is riding a 20-match winning streak on the cement while winning 13 consecutive matches in Melbourne.
It's no surprise Sinner is an overwhelming favorite to successfully defend a major title when he meets Alexander Zverev in Sunday’s Australian Open Men’s Singles Final.
The Italian No. 1 may not have his opponent's strong service game, but he has everything else. He can beat players with versatility and power from both wings and owns the second-best return game on cement.
Sinner also has a virus that nearly caused him to withdraw from the event before his quarterfinal with Alex de Minaur. The 23-year-old was seen walking gingerly throughout the de Minaur match and cramping slightly in the third set against Ben Shelton.
Sinner is one of the top players on tour in “clutch” stats, but his questionable health might take its toll, and that’s why I’m betting on Zverev to finally come through.
While he has numerous ways to win matches, Zverev does not. The German No. 1 must serve big and punish players from the baseline; otherwise, he will go down in defeat to versatile all-court players like Sinner.
Zverev has the edge in the head-to-head history. His four consecutive match dominance over Sunday’s opponent was halted in three close, hard-hitting sets last summer in Cincinnati.
The 27-year-old German is much fitter than he was one year ago. Zverev has spent two hours less court time than his opponent has, which gives the World No. 2 a slight edge he can exploit.
There’s always the chance Zverev could crumble like a cookie like he’s done in the past, but this version is physically and mentally fitter. Unlike Sinner, he’s experienced the heartbreak of defeat in a major final.
If this match goes the distance, and I believe it will, I’ll roll with the battle-scarred Zverev finally breaking through and defeating Sinner.
Best best analysis
I’m betting on Zverev to win, but my best bet is this match will be a big-bashing battle that ends Over the total.
We have a head-to-head history of lengthy matches. The past three have gone the distance, including a five-set thriller in the Round of 16 of the 2023 US Open.
Zverev has beaten Sinner twice at a hardcourt major but lost a lackadaisical four-set match on the dirt at Roland Garros (2020). That match went four sets; if we can get four sets from these two, this battle will end Over the number.
Sinner vs Zverev odds
| (1) Jannik Sinner | (2) Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | Moneyline | +235 |
| -4.5 (-120) | Game spread | +4.5 (-105) |
| 39.5 (-110) | Total games | 39.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 1-25.
How to watch Sinner vs Zverev
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, AU |
| Date | Sunday, 1-26-2025 |
| Time | 3:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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