Alexander Zverev has reached his fourth consecutive French Open semifinal after coming away empty in each prior appearance.
Casper Ruud ended Zverev’s 2023 run, and the French Open odds underdog is fresh and rested after World No. 1 Novak Djokovic withdrew before their quarterfinal clash.
Join me as I break this one down with my free betting picks for Ruud vs. Zverev on Friday, June 7.
French Open Men’s Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Casper Ruud vs Alexander Zverev odds
| (7) Casper Ruud | (4) Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| +100 | Moneyline | -125 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on 6-6-2024.
Casper Ruud vs Alexander Zverev match prediction
Casper Ruud must feel like the luckiest guy on earth.
Novak Djokovic's withdrawal gave Ruud a free pass into the semis and 4.5 fewer court hours than his semifinal opponent Alexander Zverev. The additional rest gives Ruud a huge edge as his draw has been filled with a pair of five-set battles that he deployed his huge return and big forehand to get through.
Zverev's serve is a concern. He’s one of the best in the game but has a history of double-faulting at crucial times during big matches. He tossed five double faults in his quarter against big returner Alex de Minuar and 19 total during this fortnight, which won’t go well against Ruud.
Ruud enters fresh as a daisy with a 37% break rate. The Norwegian can run down anything Zverev sends his way and can do something with the ball when he gets there. His strong return game will give Zverev fits — the German has been broken 15 times during this fortnight and the double faults are starting to creep in, which will open the door for the crowd to influence this match and for Ruud to reach his second consecutive French Open final.
Prediction: Casper Ruud to win (+105 at BetMGM)
Casper Ruud vs Alexander Zverev best bet
Our best bet follows the same logic as our prediction.
Zverev has a long history of finding his way into Grand Slam semifinals. His serve has usually led him there, but only once in six tries has it taken him further. He served 10 doubles through the first four matches but five in the quarters against de Minaur — the Australian was unable to take advantage of these miscues, but Ruud can and likely will.
Zverev is playing as well as anyone, but the crowd has been against him, and the double faults are concerning. He’ll face that same crowd and an above-average Ruud return game that will put additional pressure on Zverev’s shaky second serve — the German wins 51% of his second serves and that won’t get it done on Friday against Ruud and the Phillipe Chatrier crowd.
Ruud withstood 19 aces from big-serving Taylor Fritz but won 60% of Fritz's second offerings. He didn’t allow the aces to bother him and Zverev firing aces won’t bother him either. Ruud stepped all over the American’s weak second offering and he’ll have the same type of success on Friday against Zverev.
Best bet: Casper Ruud to win (+105 at BetMGM)
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