The Wimbledon men's draw is down to the final four players and with three former grand slam champions involved, Friday is must-see TV.
The second of two semifinal features a tantalizing rematch of this year’s Indian Wells final when Carlos Alcaraz takes on Daniil Medvedev.
Will Medvedev get his revenge here, or will Alcaraz get him yet again? The Wimbledon odds suggest this match will be close. Let’s look at who should make Sunday’s final in our Wimbledon picks and predictions.
Wimbledon Men's Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev odds and picks
| (1) Carlos Alcaraz | (3) Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| -270 | Moneyline | +220 |
| -3.5 (-135) | Game spread | +3.5 (+110) |
| Over 39.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 39.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 13, 2023.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev match prediction
The aforementioned meeting between these two at Indian Wells this year was incredibly one-sided. Alcaraz took it 6-3, 6-2 and never once looked threatened by the former World No. 1. I don’t see much changing this time around.
Alcaraz is really only in danger when he faces someone who can hit the ball as hard as he does. That’s what’s made Jannik Sinner a problem for him on tour, and it’s why he dropped sets this tournament to Matteo Berrettini and Nicolas Jarry. Against a passive player like Medvedev who loves to sit back and play defense, Alcaraz isn’t ever going to look flustered.
The Spaniard has a lethal combination of other-worldly power and deft touch. That is exactly the type of player Medvedev hates to face, considering he stands so far back in the court to utilize his elite defense. Alcaraz’s drop shot is the best in the world by a mile, and he proved in his win over Medvedev at Indian Wells that he can utilize the serve and volley to perfection to exploit Medvedev’s court position.
I don’t see any reason why Alcaraz should lose this one.
Prediction: Alcaraz ML (-250 at DraftKings)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev best bet
So – you don’t want to pay up for the Alcaraz moneyline, which is very understandable. What’s the move, then?
I like the Alcaraz set spread. You’re betting on Alcaraz to win inside of five sets with this line, and that seems like the most likely outcome.
As I noted above, Alcaraz has only really looked threatened at this tournament by players who sock the ball. Medvedev can’t do that, and the evidence for this is in that Indian Wells match. There, he tried to get aggressive and hit low-percentage shots against Alcaraz only to make an inordinate number of errors.
Medvedev looked lost for answers in that match, and I’d expect more of the same here. We’ve grown accustomed to an Alcaraz level drop in all of his best-of-five matches, so I think it’s certainly feasible Medvedev could nab a set here. I don’t expect him to grab two.
Best bet: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-135 at DraftKings)
