Poland’s Iga Swiatek is a +300 favorite to win her first US Open title. Can she overcome her recent struggles and dominate the draw at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center?
Several ladies could challenge the favorite for the title, including Simona Halep, Marie Bouzkova, and Daria Kasatkina. Or, could a sleeper such as Naomi Osaka return to form and win her third US Open championship?
We examine the 2022 field below with our comprehensive preview of the upcoming US Open tournament, set for August 27 through September 11.
US Open 2022 Women's odds
| Player | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | +300 |
| Simona Halep | +700 |
| Elena Rybakina | +1,200 |
| Cori Gauff | +1,400 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | +1,600 |
| Emma Raducanu | +1,600 |
| Naomi Osaka | +1,600 |
| Maria Sakkari | +1,700 |
| Ons Jabeur | +1,700 |
| Amanda Anisimova | +2,000 |
| Bianca Andreescu | +2,000 |
| Caroline Garcia | +2,200 |
| Belinda Bencic | +2,500 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | +2,500 |
| Paula Badosa Gibert | +2,500 |
| Karolina Pliskova | +2,500 |
| Jessica Pegula | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of August 23, 2022.
US Open 2022 Women's favorites
Who's hot
Simona Halep (+700)
Halep has had a resurgence since teaming up with Serena Williams' former coach Patrick Mouratoglue. The Romanian ranks 11th in service holds, but her strength is her return of serve, where she ranks seventh with 4.4 service breaks per match.
Halep has the second most hard-court victories this season with an 82% win rate and won the Rogers Cup WTA 1000 earlier this summer in Toronto.
She has notable issues playing in extreme heat and humidity. She’s been forced to retire from a match in Washington and withdrew from her second-round match in Cincinnati.
Her best US Open result was a 2015 semifinal appearance, but she hasn’t made it past the quarterfinal since then. Halep is a two-time Grand Slam champ, and she could do serious damage in New York.
Daria Kasatkina (+3,500)
Kasatkina won the San Jose Open and is 7-2 on the asphalt post-Wimbledon. She’s 16-7 overall and holds serve a mediocre 62% of the time, good for 46th on tour. Where the Russian national makes her money is on her third-best return game, breaking serve a whopping 44% of the time.
Kasatkina has three hard-court titles over her career and reached the fourth round in Flushing in 2017, but has an 8-7 record over her seven main draw US Open appearances.
Unsure if Kasatkina can win this event, but she should go deep into the second week and may be worth a shot.
Marie Bouzkova (+15,000)
Bouzkova is tied for seventh in hard court victories (17) and is 10-2 on the cement post-Wimbledon. She ranks 17th in service hold percentage (73.6%) but makes up for it with 4.4 service breaks per match (sixth in 2022).
Bouzkova did win the 2022 Prague Open, was a finalist in the 2022 Guadalajara Open, qualified for Toronto but had to withdraw from her second-round match due to injury and hasn’t played since.
A couple of things to consider with Bouzkova is her record against the Top 20 (2-2) and she’s failed to reach the second round in each of her five, main draw US Open appearances.
Who's not
Emma Raducanu (+1,600)
Raducanu made history in 2021 by becoming the first qualifier to win the US Open. She didn’t drop a set over those 10 matches, but since then she’s had at least four coaches, numerous injuries, and has ridden the struggle bus, posting a 6-8 hard-court record.
Raducanu did reach the QFs in Washington and beat Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka before losing in the third round in Cincinnati, so there might be some hope for her to repeat.
The young Brit has a 67% service hold rate (32nd), breaks serve an eighth-best 39%, and maybe injuries are an explanation for the losses. Her rise has been meteoric, but she’s priced far too low for someone with her post-2021 results.
Iga Swiatek (+300)
Swiatek is the top-ranked player in the world, who earlier this season went on a 37-match winning streak. Things haven’t gone as well for the young Pole, and she’s just 4-4 since her Round of 32 Wimbledon departure.
She’s won three hard court titles (Doha, Indian Wells, Miami) as well as three clay court events in 2022 including the French Open. Swiatek is 30-5 on the cement with a 12th-best service hold rate (74%) and breaks serve in 52% of her matches (first).
Swiatek is the favorite to win, but she hasn’t made it past the third round in each of her three appearances in Flushing. That being said, she’s probably going deep into this event and the +300 is likely the best number you’ll get for her heading into the tournament.
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US Open 2022 Women's sleepers
Players to watch
Naomi Osaka (+1,600)
Osaka is a two-time US Open champion and is 12-6 this season but has lost three of her last four hard-court matches. Osaka leads the tour with a 79% service hold rate and is 11th in aces while playing a limited schedule. The Japanese national ranks 48th in service breaks won per match (2.3) and if she gets hot, she could win this event.
Osaka parted ways with longtime coach Wim Fissette and is now being coached by her father. Time will tell if this pairing is enough to raise the cup, but I think a two-time champion still in her prime is worth taking a flyer on.
Beatriz Haddad Maia (+3,000)
2022 has been a breakthrough season for Haddad-Maia. The Brazilian No. 1 was a finalist at the Rogers Cup and has won three of her five final appearances.
Haddad-Maia has trouble holding serve. She has the 65th-ranked service hold rate, in part for having the eighth-worst double-fault percentage. What saves Haddad-Maia is her return game, where she wins a 22nd-best 36% of her games.
Haddad-Mai has the game to win, but outside a first-round defeat in 2017, she’s failed to qualify over her last four attempts. She won’t have to worry about that this year, and could be dangerous if she somehow manages to raise her service game.
Long-shots to avoid
Serena and Venus Williams
I’ve been watching Venus and Serena play since they were kids, and nothing saddens me more than knowing this event will be their last. Serena is a six-time US Open champion but hasn’t won here since 2014. She’s reached two finals since then (2018, 2019) but is just 1-3 this season overall and 1-2 on the hard courts.
Venus hasn’t made it official yet, but this will likely be her last US Open as well. Williams has four final appearances, winning twice (2000-2001) and losing twice (1997, 2002), but is 0-3 this summer. Venus suffered a loss to Caroline Wozniacki in the final of the 2017 Singapore Open and hasn’t reached another one since.
US Open 2022 Women's key trends and notes
Each of the past 10 Champions has won at least 55% of their hard court matches that season prior to the US Open.
In 2022, 31 ladies have won at least 55% of their matches. Most notably: Iga Swiatek (85%, +300), Simona Halep (82%, +700) Marie Bouzkova (71%, +15,000), Madison Keys (68%, +3,000), Jelena Ostapenka (66.7%, +2,500) and Maria Sakkari (65%, +1,700).
The best bet along this trend might be Keys. She’s a former finalist with the third-most hard court victories in 2022. She’s won 60% of her hard court matches, ranks ninth in service holds, but 25th in service breaks won. Keys is 3-4 against the Top 10 this season, and +3,000 is a bit high for someone with a 5-2 hard court record heading into a Slam.
Since 1968, nine women were runner-ups before they went on to win the US Open.
Plenty of Hall of Famers on this list such as Billie Jean King, Hana Mandlikova, Martina Navratilova, Steffi Graf, Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario, Gabriela Sabatini, Venus Williams, Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin.
This year's draw would include three-time runner-up Victoria Azarenka (+3,500), Karolina Pliskova (+2,500), and 2021 finalist Leylah Fernandez (+3,000) but I don’t see any of these ladies winning this event.
Pliskova is 16-9 overall and 6-3 on the hard courts post-Wimbledon. Azarenka is 22-12, but just 3-2 since the French Open, while Fernandez has been injured and is 1-2 since May. Pliskova shares the top spot with Elena Rybakina in ace percentage (9.1%) but also ranks fifth in double-fault percentage. +2,500 is a good price, but her serving woes make her a fade for me.
Since 2004, Kim Clijsters is the only woman to win the Cincinnati Open and the US Open in the same calendar year.
While success in Cincinnati can be indicative of US Open success for the men, the ladies follow that same trend. That leads us to Cincinnati Open winner Caroline Garcia.
Garcia is the hottest player on the circuit since June. The French national won Cincy as a qualifier on cement, Warsaw on clay, and Bad Homburg on grass.
Her record on the hard stuff is just 14-9 this season, but she has the third-highest service hold percentage on the cement with huge victories in 2022 over third-ranked Maria Sakkari, sixth-ranked Aryana Sabalenka, and eighth-ranked Jessica Pegula.
Garcia failed to qualify for the 2021 US Open and has reached the Round of 32 just four times in her 11 US Open main draw appearances.
Garcia hasn’t had the success in NY like she had hoped, and wasn’t on the US Open futures board until she won Cincinnati last weekend. The +1,600 number is much too low and an automatic fade for me.
