After some last-second scheduling drama, Tony Ferguson vs. Nate Diaz is scheduled for three rounds in the welterweight division as the new main event for UFC 279, tonight from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. While both fighters have seen better days, this battle between two aging legends is sure to deliver for fans old and new.
Ferguson goes from underdog to favorite here after being upgraded to the main event, and is a -122 UFC odds favorite. Diaz, who also finds himself up against a more manageable opponent, is a +105 underdog.
Get the best UFC betting angles with our Ferguson vs. Diaz picks.
Ferguson vs Diaz fight odds
| Method of Victory | Tony Ferguson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Outright win | -122 | +100 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +390 | +500 |
| To win by Points | +195 | +330 |
| To win by Submission | +1,600 | +550 |
| Draw | OTB | OTB |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 10, 2022.
Ferguson vs Diaz picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Ferguson vs Diaz betting preview
In a fascinating case of addition by subtraction, Ferguson and Diaz face off against each other and save themselves from the beatings they would have received from their original opponents. Ferguson/Diaz puts two faded veterans who might not be able to handle the fury of the new blood, but could still steal the show fighting someone at the same stage of their career. Ferguson has moved up to welterweight, but like Diaz, he’s a natural lightweight.
Ferguson was at one point one of the best fighters in the UFC as he had an amazing 12-fight win streak in hopes of a fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov that never materialized. His striking and wrestling were on point as he averaged 5.12 significant strikes per minute, and 0.41 takedowns with 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. While concerns linger about his durability in the midst of his brutal four-fight skid, it has to be noted that Ferguson was getting bopped by the best the division had to offer.
While we’ve had a rapid serving of Ferguson’s misfortunes, Diaz has been in a perpetual decline since the defining moment of his career when he beat Conor McGregor six years ago. Even so, Diaz lands 4.51 significant strikes per minute, with 1.10 takedowns and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Diaz’s trademark toughness has him always coming forward for better or worse, and for all the punishment he’s endured, Diaz was just moments away from stopping soon-to-be-champ Leon Edwards in his last fight.
Based on the stats, this figures to be a tight fight to call. While Ferguson is the more creative striker and can exploit Diaz’s susceptibility to wrestlers, Diaz isn’t going anywhere and has been notoriously hard to put down. A change in scenery might be just what the doctor ordered for Ferguson, but a cracked chin has no easy fix.
These two went from potential wipeouts to one of the most intriguing bouts of the year in a little less than 24 hours before the first bell.
Ferguson vs Diaz tale of the tape
| Tony Ferguson | Nate Diaz | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 37 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 6-feet |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 76.5 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 25-7 (12 KOs) | Record | 20-13 (5 KOs) |
Ferguson vs Diaz UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Ferguson moneyline
Despite his recent skid, we feel that Ferguson has more left in the tank. Diaz has slowed down considerably over the years, and he himself was in a similar situation when he fought a badly faded Anthony Pettis in a do-or-die fight. The lopsided losses he suffered to Jorge Masvidal and Edwards underlined that there isn’t enough left.
The same can be said for Ferguson, but unless he gets into too many exchanges with Diaz, we can see him taking him to the ground and maintaining control long enough for the rounds to tick away. These two are close enough in size that Ferguson might be able to ride out some rough moments because he isn’t fighting a natural welterweight.
It’s going to be close, but if Ferguson has that one great performance fighters of his make usually have, this is going to be the one. We’re rolling with Ferguson to end his streak and get back in the win column.
Prediction: Ferguson moneyline (-122 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Ferguson moneyline
Diaz is nigh unstoppable, and Ferguson climbing up from lightweight isn’t going to have the stopping power to change that. Considering Diaz’s past performances with fighters of Ferguson’s mold, the higher mileage on his odometer, and his being wantonly available to hit, Ferguson should have enough to outwork him over three rounds.
The best call to make here is that Ferguson manages to squeeze by with his groundwork being the difference in a close fight. Due to the lack of additional lines so close to fight night, we’re sticking with Ferguson straight up, but bet on a decision if you can.
Pick: Ferguson moneyline (-122 at DraftKings)
