UFC 280 takes the promotion back to Fight Island, and it’s packed with wall-to-wall action highlighted by Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev.
With the main card already covered in detail, we turn our attention to several intriguing clashes to be found on the preliminaries, including a pair of crossroad clashes at welterweight and light heavyweight.
Here are our free picks and predictions for the UFC 280 preliminaries on October 22.
UFC 280 prelim picks and predictions
Fight 1
• Prediction: Brady ML (-140)
• Best Bet: Brady to win by decision (+150)
Fight 2
• Prediction: Krylov ML (-175)
• Best Bet: Krylov ML (-175)
Fight 3
• Prediction: Borralho ML (-2,055)
• Best Bet: Borralho to win by submission (+400)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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Even though Muhammad has gone 7-0 with a no-contest since 2019, this is a do-or-die fight for him. Worse, Brady is emerging as a legitimate threat at welterweight, and his talent ceiling figures to be higher than Muhammad’s. Muhammad vs. Brady bettors are backing the favorite to remain undefeated and announce his arrival to the division’s elite.
These two have identical numbers where only a few things stand out. Muhammad lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.91 for Brady, with Brady being more accurate and beating Muhammad in the takedown game. He averages 3.22 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Muhammad’s 2.29. Muhammad has faced sterner opposition, but Brady is so dynamic and a better striker.
Though the UFC odds are close, Brady might just run away with this one. We like Brady to deny Muhammad’s takedown attempts and rough him up on his way to a clear decision win. Take Brady on points for a +150 score.
Prediction: Sean Brady moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Sean Brady to win by decision (+150 at DraftKings)
Oezdemir vs. Krylov is a bout between capably-flawed light heavyweights is one of the most competitive fights on the prelims. Both fighters ended a two-fight skid as Krylov pounded the bones of what once was Alexander Gustaffson in his last fight, whereas Oezdemir shut down upset specialist Paul Craig.
Oezdemir has the better takedown defense but this fight will have little to any wrestling or grappling as these two will slug it out. They both land roughly the same amount of strikes, but Krylov is more explosive and can defend well when he’s focused. Krylov fights with a compromised ring IQ at times, but Oezdemir is going to be right there for him to tag all night.
While the odds suggest Krylov could score a stoppage here, Oezdemir is incredibly resilient and can take a good shot. Krylov’s fights seldom go beyond the second round, and while he should deliver a win here, we’re shaky on taking him on anything other than the moneyline at -175.
Prediction: Nikita Krylov moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Nikita Krylov moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
Borralho is becoming a middleweight to watch, looking dominant with an incredible grappling game and couples it with solid striking. “The Natural” hasn’t lost in the cage for six years and is in with an opponent who is in there to do his part to make him look good. Muradov can be dangerous and unorthodox on his feet, but will absolutely lose if he gets taken down.
The Brazilian is a physically taxing grappler and he scores 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes at 80%, lands 2.72 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy, and has that tricky southpaw stance. Muradov is busy up top throwing 5.39 significant strikes per minute and has an 80% takedown defense rate, but Gerald Meerschaert had no trouble taking Muradov’s back and choking him out in his last fight.
If Meerschaert could take Muradov down three times and get the submission, Borralho’s chances to do the same look pretty good. We feel as far as a moneyline pick is concerned in Muradov vs. Borralho, Caio is a lock, but we’re going to back him to win by submission for +400.
Prediction: Caio Borralho moneyline (-205 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Caio Borralho to win by submission (+400 at DraftKings)
