UFC 301 Smith vs Petrino Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Smith Goes Night Night

The light heavyweight clash between Vitor Petrino and Anthony Smith is one of the featured undercard bouts of tonight's  UFC 301. 

Petrino is undefeated and is looking to position himself as a player in the evolving division. For Smith, it may serve as his last chance to turn his career around.

UFC odds have Petrino as a significant -525 favorite, with Smith coming back at +365. Here are my best free UFC 301: Petrino vs. Smith predictions from Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Smith vs Petrino prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Petrino ML (-525 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Petrino by knockout (+110 at BET99)

Fight analysis

It is becoming increasingly difficult to find anything positive to say about Anthony Smith. He hasn't looked good in a while, having two wins in his last five fights and looking less impressive each time out. The UFC looks to be investing in Petrino, and Smith is a decent win to help them begin putting their new talent on the path towards contention. Petrino is a major favorite, and with good reason.

He is a big striker with good wrestling to fall back on. Though not a refined talent, he fights with intensity while not looking too green. Smith hasn't shown good form over the last few fights, and I'd hedge my bets that Petrino is just as good as Khalil Rountree was, and he just knocked Smith out in his last fight.

Smith is on borrowed time if he isn't finished already. It has been a long time since he's been considered an elite contender, and it's debatable whether he is even a serviceable veteran now. 

There is a chance Smith's experience and trademark toughness could help him navigate some rough spots. He is always ready to fight if nothing else, and if Petrino makes the mistake of being too aggressive, Smith can try and capitalize.

I just don't see it happening for Smith. He's more vulnerable than ever and isn't showing the same kind of durability and resilience from a few years ago. The weight of a nearly 60-fight career has seemed to take its toll on him.

Petrino has everything he should have to beat Smith in a conclusive manner. Youth will be served here, and questions will linger on how much longer Smith is willing to compete in his current state.

Best best analysis

Petrino can stop Smith if he is able to mitigate his volume and close the distance. With solid leg kicks, good wrestling skills, and respectable power, it is very possible.

Smith has a 48% takedown defense rate, and Petrino is averaging nearly four takedowns a fight, which gives the younger lion another avenue to victory. All Petrino needs to do is crowd Smith, who may not offer much evasive footwork to avoid him and could put the former title challenger in a bad spot. With Smith slowing and not absorbing punishment well, a trip to the mat is likely leading to an early end.

Petrino is being positioned for a spotlight performance against a rapidly declining star, and he'll deliver a big win for the home crowd.

Smith vs Petrino odds

Method of Victory	Smith	Petrino
To win outright	+350	-525
To win by KO/TKO	+075	+110
To win by points	+1,200	+245
To win by submission	+1,450	+405
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-4-2024.

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Smith vs Petrino tale of the tape

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