UFC 302 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Dawson Grapples Way to Victory

UFC 302 is taking place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with the main event being a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier — along with a middleweight grudge match between Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa. 

The preliminaries feature some promising bouts at lightweight, welterweight, and middleweight that could maximize your UFC betting weekend.

Here are my best free UFC 302 preliminary picks and predictions.

UFC 302 prelim picks and predictions

Grant Dawson vs Joe Solecki
• Prediction: Dawson ML (-475)
• Best Bet: Dawson by decision (-105)

Roman Kopylov vs. Cesar Almeida
• Prediction: Almeida ML (-125)
• Best Bet: Fight not to go the distance (-170)

Phil Rowe vs Jake Matthews
• Prediction: Rowe ML (+135)
• Best Bet: Rowe by decision (+405)

Picks made on 5-31-2024. Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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UFC 302 prelim odds and picks

Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki fight odds

Method of Victory	Dawson	Solecki
To win outright	-525	+425
To win by KO/TKO	+425	+2,900
To win by points	+100	+725
To win by submission	+245	+1,300
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 6-1-2024.

Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki are both accomplished BJJ specialists, setting the stage for a grappling-focused bout. Dawson's recent loss to Bobby Green raises questions about his durability, but his grappling prowess remains a key asset. Solecki — despite a recent knockout loss to Drakkar Klose — is known for his tenacity and solid defensive skills.

While Solecki has shown resilience, Dawson's superior grappling abilities and previous standout performances give him the edge in this matchup. Expect a technical grappling contest, with Dawson likely to control the majority of the fight. Despite Solecki's defensive capabilities, Dawson is poised to bounce back with a decision victory.

Prediction: Dawson moneyline (-475 at BET99)
Best Bet: Dawson by decision (-105 at BET99)

Roman Kopylov vs. Cesar Almeida fight odds

Method of Victory	Kopylov	Almeida
To win outright	-105	-125
To win by KO/TKO	+205	+260
To win by points	+375	+250
To win by submission	+2,500	+1,900
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 6-1-2024.

Kopylov and Almeida are two high-level kickboxers known for their stopping power and excellent striking skills, setting the stage for a predominantly stand-up fight.

Almeida is making his UFC debut, whereas Kopylov, with a record of 4-3, is still finding his footing due to his limited ground game — both offensively and defensively. This matchup is expected to see both fighters playing to their strengths in striking.

Almeida, the more active and technically superior kickboxer, has an edge due to his ability to implement his offense more quickly. On the other hand, Kopylov tends to take his time to feel out opponents before committing to a plan of attack.

Given the striking prowess of both fighters and their finishing capabilities, this bout is unlikely to go the distance.

Prediction: Almeida moneyline (-125 at BET99)
Best Bet: Fight not to go the distance (-170 at BET99)

Phil Rowe vs. Jake Matthews fight odds

Method of Victory	Rowe	Matthews
To win outright	+130	-160
To win by KO/TKO	+500	+625
To win by points	+390	+145
To win by submission	+750	+540
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 6-1-2024.

Before Rowe dropped a split decision to Neil Magny, he had a three-fight winning streak where he won each fight by knockout. Losing to Magny is not a big deal, but he did leave that win on the table by not pressing his striking advantages and getting too comfortable trying to wrestle with Magny.

Matthews is 3-3 over his last six, with the losses coming from high-quality opponents and the wins against low-quality opponents. If Matthews can't work in his takedowns, he struggles to overcome a skilled striker.

There's no way Rowe is worse off than Darrius Flowers and Diego Sanchez, especially with a four-inch advantage in height and a seven-inch advantage in reach. From what we've seen from Matthews in recent performances, he's going to struggle against Rowe's reach and straight shots and will have to hope Rowe makes the tactical error of trying to grapple — which plays into Matthews' hands. 

As long as Rowe keeps Matthews on the outside with those long strikes and sticks to that game plan, he'll come out on top.

Prediction: Rowe moneyline (+135 at BET99)
Best Bet: Rowe by decision (+405 at BET99)

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