UFC 305: Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker Odds, Picks & Predictions

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker is a lightweight fight featured on this UFC 305 undercard and one of our featured events for UFC betting. 

This bout features two fighters who couldn’t take a backward step if they wanted to, though Gamrot’s varied skill set may save him from calamity.

UFC odds have Gamrot as a -340 favorite and Hooker as a +255 underdog. Here are my best Gamrot vs. Hooker predictions from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

Gamrot vs Hooker prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Gamrot moneyline (-360 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
   Gamrot to win by decision (-125 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Though there isn’t much that separates these two in terms of what to expect when they get in the octagon, the sense is Gamrot is teetering closer to being an elite lightweight while Hooker is at his ceiling as a veteran contender.

An upset loss to Beneil Dariush at UFC 280 might have cost Gamrot a premier fight, but a win over Hooker would be his fourth in a row, and he’ll be looking at a big fight down the line if he and his always-entertaining opponent can deliver a good show. 

Gamrot has good striking and can grapple, but he’s also chinny and fearless — far from an ideal mix. In his last fight against , he was nearly done in with a first-round head kick from Rafael Dos Anjos in his last bout, but he managed to switch gears and get the 40-year-old on the ground 11 times before going back to his striking in the third round to secure the victory. 

Hooker is a better striker and is more difficult to take down than Dos Anjos, but the mileage is running high, and he isn’t that far removed from a 1-4 stretch from 2020-2022 that made it look like he was a finished fighter.

Granted, Hooker only lost to elite fighters and Islam Makhachev during that downturn, and he’s looked solid in wins over Claudio Puelles and Jalin Turner since then. He's coming off a one year layoff, whereas Gamrot has fought twice during that span.

While Hooker could buzz the sometimes careless Gamrot early on, “Gamer” has shown good survival instincts and conditioning, meaning he can take a few shots and still feasibly pull out the win.

Gamrot might have his mental lapses, but he ultimately sticks to his game plan and finds a way to win. I can see Gamrot testing the waters early, tasting Hooker’s power and then opting to relentlessly clinch and grind him down like he did in his last fight. Hooker will threaten the upset, but he’ll run out of time to pull it off.

Best best analysis

Gamrot is vulnerable early on in a fight, but he gets stronger as the fight goes on and does a good job of adjusting his approach to suit the flow of the fight.

Hooker only knows how to fight one way, and while there’s no doubt he’s the better pure striker here, Gamrot isn’t feather-fisted and has more than one way to execute his offense. 

Though Gamrot more often than not gets decked and put on the canvas, he should manage to survive Hooker’s early opportunities. He’ll be able to time his attack and disrupt his rhythm with his wrestling, using those as his own scoring opportunities and managing to grind and pot shot his way to a decision win. 

Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker odds

Method of Victory	Gamrot	Hooker
To win outright	-360	+265
To win by KO/TKO	+640	+875
To win by decision	-125	+575
To win by submission	+400	+1,650
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-17.

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Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker tale of the tape

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