UFC 305: Li Jingliang vs Carlos Prates Odds, Picks & Predictions

Saturday’s UFC 305 main card kicks off with a welterweight bout between Li Jingliang and Carlos Prates. Jingliang makes his long-anticipated return to the octagon following some health scares, while Prates will look to build upon his 3-0 start in the UFC.

UFC odds have Prates as a large betting favorite at -340, while Jingliang returns at +270. Here are my free betting picks for Jingliang vs. Prates at tonight’s UFC event in Perth.

Jingliang vs Prates prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Jingliang moneyline (+270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Jingliang by KO or points (+305 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Li Jingliang returns to the octagon for the first time since September of 2022, where he lost a controversial split decision to Daniel Rodriguez. To be blunt, Jingliant absolutely won that fight, and 21 of the 23 media scores agree with that sentiment.

He has not fought since that “loss” due to chronic neck issues, and all reports suggest that the two years off have allowed those injuries to completely heal. Jingliang has talked this week about how this is the best he has felt in years, and we must remember what this guy looked like prior to the absence.

It’s a moot point to keep debating his “loss to Rodriguez,” but, for the sake of illustration, let’s say he (rightfully) earned the decision that night. The Leech would be 6-2 over his past eight fights with his only two losses coming to Khamzat Chimaev and Neil Magny.

While Prates is a promising up-and-comer who is riding a win streak, he is nowhere near the level of those two names. This fight is a massive jump up for Prates, and I’m not sure he is quite ready for the test that he will get from Jingliang, assuming he is in fact fully healthy once again.

Best best analysis

There is a good way to increase the payout if we are backing Jingliang by taking his double chance prop to win by either KO or points. This just eliminates the submission prop, which I feel is worth eliminating for the boosted payout.

Jingliang is a striker who has not recorded a submission victory in nearly a decade, while Prates has not lost by submission across that same time span. I also want to talk more about Prates, who is receiving a ton of attention for his three straight knockouts to start his UFC tenure.

While that is impressive, the first one came against Mitch Ramirez, who is 0-2 in the UFC. The second came against Trevin Giles, who has lost four of his past six fights.

More concerningly, Giles was easily winning that fight prior to getting caught. The reason that makes me more pessimistic about Prates is that, if that knockout punch doesn’t land, can he win a fight that goes longer?

We will likely find out, given that Jingliang has never been knocked out across 27 professional MMA bouts. I’m not sure Prates is worthy of the hype if you take away that one-touch power, and I think that will be proven this Saturday against a savvy veteran with an iron chin.

Li Jingliang vs Carlos Prates odds

Method of Victory	Jingliang	Prates
To win outright	+255	-350
To win by KO/TKO	+640	-115
To win by decision	+625	+280
To win by submission	+2,250	+1,150
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-17.

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Li Jingliang vs Carlos Prates tale of the tape

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