UFC 306: Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics Odds, Picks & Predictions

Tonight's UFC 306 main card features a lightweight bout between Daniel Zellhuber and Esteban Ribovics. Both 155-pound prospects have lost just once each over their combined 30 professional MMA bouts.

UFC odds have Zellhuber as a sizable betting favorite at -230, while Ribovics returns at +190. Here are my free betting picks for Zellhuber vs. Ribovics at UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14. 

Zellhuber vs Ribovics prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Zellhuber moneyline (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Zellhuber by decision (+125 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Zellhuber is a highly touted and fascinating prospect in the 155-pound division. He is 15-1 through 16 professional MMA bouts and has begun his journey in the UFC with an impressive 4-1 record.

An alumnus of Dana White’s Contender Series, Zellhuber possesses a unique and advantageous build for this division, which is why I utilized “fascinating” as an adjective in the preceding paragraph. He is 6’1 and possesses a massive 77” reach, which is a big advantage over other 155-pound fighters.

We saw him utilize that reach to keep Francisco Prado at a distance in his latest win, which is exactly what I expect him to do against Ribovics. Not that Ribovics is far behind Zellhuber in terms of upside, but the latter carries a three-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage, which is so difficult to overcome when a fight features two guys on a relatively even playing field.

Best best analysis

I find little value in backing Zellhuber on his moneyline at -230. With that said, we can take his win-by-decision prop to garner a +130 return, which I believe is a more valuable wager to consider.

I believe that this will require the judges’ input, and oddsmakers agree as the fight goes to the distance prop is currently listed at -160 to the “yes”. If this fight goes the distance, then who is more likely to rack up points and achieve victory?

The answer is Zellhuber, which is why Ribovics is +365 in the same market. The reason that Zellhuber is more likely to rack up points in a decision victory is that he can utilize his height and reach advantage to keep Ribovics at bay and land shots without the fear of a returning blow.

This is exactly how Zellhuber beat Prado, and is how I expect him to beat Ribovics and his eight-inch reach disadvantage as well. When a fighter has that much of a reach disadvantage, the two ways to nullify it are by either shooting for takedowns or making the fight dirty and going for a knockout on the inside.

First, Ribovics is a pure boxer and has landed just two takedowns across four UFC bouts. Zellhuber also boasts a dominant 94% takedown defense.

Second, while Ribovics carries knockout power, Zellhuber has never been finished across 16 professional MMA bouts. Without those two ways to take away Zellhuber’s reach advantage, I expect the favorite to just stay outside, pick his shots, and rack up points en route to a decision victory.

Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics odds

Method of Victory	Zellhuber	Ribovics
To win outright	-230	+190
To win by KO/TKO	+280	+675
To win by decision	+125	+365
To win by submission	+975	+1,800
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-14.

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Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics tale of the tape

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