UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano Predictions, Picks & Odds

UFC 311 has a new matchup headlining tonight's main event, with Renato Moicano stepping in to challenge Islam Makhachev for the lightweight championship.

Moicano was supposed to fight earlier on the card, but with Arman Tsarukyan pulling out due to a back injury, the No. 10 ranked lightweight contender will jump the line for a title shot.

With UFC odds installing Makhachev as a massive -1000 favorite, I break down the best betting value with my UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano predictions for Saturday, January 18.

Makhachev vs Moicano prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Makhachev moneyline (-1000 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Under 1.5 rounds (+105 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Despite being the No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world, it would be a mistake for Islam Makhachev to completely overlook Renato Moicano.

After all, the champ is coming off a competitive win against Dustin Poirier, who almost lost to Benoit St. Denis — a fighter who Moicano finished in his last fight. That said, MMA math is never that simple and this will be a brutal matchup for the challenger. 

Moicano is on a four-fight winning streak but primarily relied on his grappling to win those bouts. However, there are levels to grappling and Makhachev is on another tier — as we saw when he completely steamrolled Charles Oliveira on the mat to claim the belt in 2022.

Not only will Moicano be overpowered and outclassed when this fight goes to the ground, but he's also at a disadvantage standing up. The Brazilian can be hittable and has been picked apart on his feet by Jalin Turner and Drew Dober. That's a bad sign against Makhachev, who has dynamic kickboxing and crisp counter-striking.

Makhachev should be able to cruise to his fourth title defense, but I would never lay this much chalk on anybody (especially in MMA when freak injuries can happen), so look elsewhere for betting value. 

Best bet analysis

Moicano's durability has held up pretty well since going up to lightweight, but he was knocked out by Rafael Fiziev in the first round. He was also finished three times at featherweight (two knockouts and one submission), which led to his move up in weight class. 

Seven of Makhachev's last eight wins have come by way of stoppage, with three of those coming inside the first round. It's no coincidence that all three of those Round 1 finishes came against opponents on short notice (Dan Hooker, Bobby Green, and the rematch with Alexander Volkanovski).

Although Moicano did have a full camp, Makhachev's unique style makes him a nightmare to face without preparation. On the other side, there's nothing that Moicano brings to the table that the champ hasn't seen before. Expect Makhachev to win by early "smesh", and take the Under 1.5 rounds.

Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano odds

Method of Victory	Makhachev	Moicano
To win outright	-1000	+625
To win by KO/TKO	+180	+1250
To win by decision	+575	+2900
To win by submission	-115	+1900
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 1-18.

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Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano tale of the tape

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