The UFC returns to New Jersey as the Prudential Center hosts Saturday's UFC 316. The main card features a bantamweight bout between No. 10-ranked contender Mario Bautista and unranked newcomer Patchy Mix.
Current UFC odds list Mix as a moderate favorite at -185 via BET99, while Bautista is priced at +150. Here are my free picks UFC 316: Bautista vs. Mix predictions for Saturday’s event in Newark.
Bautista vs Mix prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Mix moneyline (-180 at BET99)
- My best bet: Fight to go the distance (-180 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Patchy Mix joins Patricio Pitbull and Aaron Pico as the latest UFC signees poached from Bellator. That said, Mix is perhaps the most significant addition to date, with many pegging him as the best 135-pounder on the planet.
While it may be premature to make such claims before he has even stepped into the UFC Octagon, the ceiling is certainly there. Mix holds a nearly spotless 20-1 professional record and is coming off two successful title defenses in Bellator’s bantamweight division.
He is a submission artist who refuses to be outwrestled and possesses a competent striking game to stay competitive on the feet. While his credentials have earned him admiration throughout the MMA community, he faces a tough challenge in his UFC debut against Mario Bautista.
Though Mix could prove to be one of the best bantamweights in the world, Bautista already is. The latter rides a seven-fight win streak in the UFC, including marquee victories over Jose Aldo and Ricky Simon.
Best bet analysis
If I were forced to pick a side, I would go with Mix. I believe he’s capable of living up to the hype, even though he hasn’t yet faced the caliber of opponents Bautista has dispatched in the UFC.
Bautista is hittable and has previously lost via submission, which opens the door for a Mix victory. However, Bautista represents a massive step up in competition, and that, combined with the pressure of Mix’s long-awaited UFC debut, could prove to be a dangerous combination.
Instead, the best bet here is for the fight to go the distance at -150 via BET99.
This matchup could mirror the Bautista vs. Aldo fight at UFC 307, much to the chagrin of fans. Mix, like Aldo, boasts excellent takedown defense.
In that bout, Bautista went 0-for-10 on takedown attempts and instead controlled Aldo along the cage, winning the clinch exchanges to secure a decision victory.
If this fight follows a similar script, Mix should survive to the final bell. He has never been submitted or knocked out in 21 professional MMA bouts.
The main concern with this prop is if Mix locks in a submission, a very real possibility. Still, Bautista’s lone submission loss came nearly seven years ago against Cory Sandhagen, and it was more the result of an early-career mistake than a fundamental weakness.
Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Bautista | Mix |
| To win outright | +145 | -190 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +700 | +975 |
| To win by decision | +270 | +165 |
| To win by submission | +1800 | +255 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 6-7.
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Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix tale of the tape
| Bautista | Mix | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 15-2 | Record | 20-1 |
| 3 | Wins by KO | 2 |
| 6 | Wins by submission | 13 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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