Brendan Allen vs Anthony Hernandez Predictions, Picks & Odds

Anthony Hernandez takes on Brendan Allen in a fight that will propel the winner toward the top of the middleweight division. 

UFC odds have Hernandez as a -320 favorite and Allen as a +250 underdog, and my Allen vs. Hernandez predictions agree with the bookmakers.

Allen vs Hernandez prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Hernandez ML (-320 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-180 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Seven years ago, Hernandez won a five-round decision over Allen when both competed in LFA. That may seem like a lifetime ago in MMA terms, but this rematch pits two top-level middleweights on very different trajectories.

Hernandez is surging, while Allen is coming off a lopsided loss to Nassourdine Imavov. Though Allen still holds a Top 10 ranking, a second consecutive loss could push him out of the elite bubble at 185 pounds.

Ahead of the Imavov fight, Allen had put together a seven-fight win streak, five of which came by submission. However, the streak included a controversial decision over Chris Curtis, and Imavov exposed Allen’s striking limitations, picking him apart when Allen couldn’t secure takedowns.

Despite this, Allen remains dangerous on the ground, averaging 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His striking — though serviceable — is average, with 3.73 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes while absorbing 3.83. Allen is tough, durable, and well-conditioned, often competitive even when outclassed.

Hernandez, meanwhile, has been on an upward trajectory since his 2020 loss to Kevin Holland. While that defeat might raise some eyebrows, Holland was in better form during that period than he is now.

Since then, Hernandez has shown steady improvement, with superior athleticism, explosive movement, and relentless pressure. He averages 4.9 significant strikes per 15 minutes with an impressive 63% accuracy while absorbing just 2.88. His grappling is also a major asset, landing 6.64 takedowns per 15 minutes with 2.3 submission attempts — demonstrating his ability to mix up his offense effectively.

The key question heading into this rematch is whether Hernandez can maintain his high pace and impose his will over Allen across three rounds. Allen has respectable takedown defense and will force his opponent to work for control on the ground.

On foot, Hernandez has the clear striking advantage, but he must create impactful moments to sway the judges and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges that could favor Allen’s submission skills.

Given both fighters’ durability and tendency to stay active even under pressure, this is a closely contested fight that could go the distance. Hernandez’s relentless pace will likely lead to plenty of scrambles and exchanges, while Allen’s toughness and grappling should keep him competitive.

Best bet analysis
Hernandez will set a fast pace, but Allen’s toughness and ability to stuff takedowns means if anything is going to happen, it will happen late in the fight.

These two will fight a competitive fight, and it will likely go into the third round, if not the distance entirely.

Brendan Allen vs Anthony Hernandez odds

Method of Victory	Allen	Hernandez
To win outright	+250	-320
To win by KO/TKO	+1750	+525
To win by decision	+425	+115
To win by submission	+1200	+310
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-22.

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Brendan Allen vs Anthony Hernandez tale of the tape

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