Tonight’s UFC Fight Night card in Abu Dhabi features a welterweight bout between unranked veterans Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa. This bout could potentially be followed by a double retirement, considering both guys are right at the end of their respective careers.
UFC odds have Chiesa as a massive betting favorite at -600, while Ferguson returns at +400. Here are my Ferguson vs. Chiesa predictions for August 3.
Ferguson vs Chiesa prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Chiesa moneyline (-600 at BET99) - My best bet
Chiesa by decision (+125 at BET99)
Fight analysis
While this betting line is extremely long, it is warranted. Simply put, Tony Ferguson has no business fighting in a UFC octagon anymore. I say that with all due respect.
He's a legend of the game, but his legend status is the only reason he still has a job in the highest-level MMA promotion.
The 40-year-old has lost seven consecutive fights, and, assuming the highly likely eighth straight loss on Saturday, Ferguson should finally hang up those gloves.
Chiesa is no spring chicken, either, just three years younger and looking for his first win in over three years. However, he's still just a few years removed from back-to-back wins over Neil Magny and Rafael Dos Anjos, two performances far more impressive than anything Ferguson has done in the past five years.
Best best analysis
Instead of laying -600 on Chiesa’s moneyline, I think there's more value in backing him to win by decision at +125. Oddsmakers are suggesting Chiesa has two real paths to victory: submission or decision.
His KO/TKO prop is listed at +875, and while Ferguson’s chin is nowhere near what it once was, a knockout is unlikely. Chiesa has never knocked someone out across 23 professional fights.
That is just simply not his game: he's a grappler and brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. At the same time, the only two fighters to knock out Ferguson over his seven-fight losing streak were Michael Chandler and Justin Gaethje.
To say Chiesa’s power isn’t quite at the level of those two guys would be an understatement. So, that just leaves submission or decision, which are both paying out the same price of +125.
The reason I am more confident in the decision prop is Ferguson’s grappling defense is still strong enough to thwart Chiesa's attempts. During the losing streak, Ferguson has been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and lost by decision three times.
The submission loss to King Green occurred with just six seconds left in the fight, while the submission loss to Nate Diaz occurred in a fourth round that won’t exist for this three-round bout against Chiesa. Ferguson’s three decision losses came against Paddy Pimblett, Beneil Dariush, and Charles Oliveira — three guys who are all better submission hunters than Chiesa in his current state.
In fact, those three guys went a combined 0-4 in their submission attempts against Ferguson. I still think Chiesa will dominate the grappling like those three did and ultimately coast to an effortless decision victory.
Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Ferguson | Chiesa |
| To win outright | +400 | -600 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +2,250 | +875 |
| To win by decision | +900 | +130 |
| To win by submission | +1,150 | +125 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 8-2.
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Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa tale of the tape
| Ferguson | Chiesa | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 76.5 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 25-10 (12 KOs) | Record | 16-7 (0 KOs) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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