UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs Volkov Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Crown Sergei at Kingdom Arena

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov is the co-main event on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card and one of our featured events for UFC betting.

This fight between two of the best heavyweights in the world will likely determine who will be next in line for a title shot, and I believe the powerful Pavlovich will face a worthy foe in Volkov.

UFC odds have Pavlovich a -225 favorite, with Volkov a +185 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Volkov predictions from the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Pavlovich vs Volkov prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pavlovich moneyline (-225 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 1.5 rounds (+120 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Pavlovich and Volkov are two efficient heavyweights with a good amount in common. They are tremendously strong, highly skilled, and both have only lost to Tom Aspinall in their last five fights. They are viable contenders for a heavyweight title shot on the glorious day it is released from its current hostage situation, where it idly sits around the waist of Jon Jones. However, this fight pits a search-and-destroy striker against a steady-as-she-goes operator, and I have doubts that Volkov can match Pavlovich's intensity or resist his power.

We've seen Pavlovich essentially steamroll the heavyweight division before he hit a wall in Aspinall, who may end up being the torchbearer for the division in the years to come. Pavlovich is easily among the best strikers in the division. He comes out hot, puts pressure on his opponents right away, and has the kind of power that makes every striking exchange a taxing one for his opponent. Volkov is an active striker and is more technical, but he has inconsistent power and often outpaces his opponents instead of blowing them up.

That has gotten him in trouble before. He was dominating Derrick Lewis until Lewis blasted him with a KO shot late in their fight. Ciryl Gane outclassed him, even though they both landed over 100 significant strikes in their fight, and both Curtis Blaydes and Aspinall were able to frequently overpower him. He's on a three-fight win streak, and he’s one of the most reliable contenders in the division, but this is likely where the run ends for "Drago."

Pavlovich isn't without weaknesses. Aspinall and an old Alistair Overeem stood their ground against him and were able to finish him inside a round. Volkov is a sturdy opponent and could make things difficult the longer the fight lasts, and we’ll see if he can stretch things out by weathering Pavlovich’s early assault. Volkov has a chance, but the lack of power means that it won't take too long for Pavlovich to land one of his big bombs, then put his finishing skills to work to come out with a win.

Best best analysis

While I feel Pavlovich is going to end up detonating on Volkov sooner rather than later, a strong bet to make on this is to take Pavlovich straight-up while he’s still hovering around -200 odds. I believe Volkov can get out of the first round, but I have a hard time imagining he won’t catch a big shot throwing as many strikes as he does.

Because I feel Volkov is sturdy and skilled enough to trouble Pavlovich and is going to aim to take him into deep waters, my best bet for the fight is that it goes over 1.5 rounds.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Alexander Volkov odds

Method of Victory	Pavlovich	Volkov
To win outright	-225	+185
To win by KO/TKO	+375	+375
To win by points	+550	+675
To win by submission	+2,000	+1,400
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 6-19.

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Alexander Volkov tale of the tape

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