Paddy Pimblett vs. Kazula Vargas is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on March 19 from the O2 Arena in London, England.
This bout will get plenty of attention with all the hype surrounding the charismatic young Pimblett. UFC betting lines opened with Pimblett as a -225 favorite but money has poured in on "The Baddy", shifting his odds all the way to -550 while Vargas comes back as the underdog at +400.
Here are our best free Pimblett vs. Vargas picks and predictions for what should be a lightweight banger at UFC Fight Night on Saturday, March 19.
Pimblett vs Vargas fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Pimblett vs Vargas method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Paddy Pimblett | Rodrigo Vargas |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +230 | +850 |
| To win by Points | +320 | +950 |
| To win by Submission | +160 | +3,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of March 17, 2022.
Pimblett vs Vargas picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Pimblett vs Vargas betting preview
Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett is fresh off a first-round knockout victory of Luigi Vendramini in his UFC debut last September.
The 27-year-old made his MMA debut as a 17-year-old and competed for most of his career for the UK-based Cage Warriors where he compiled a 10-2 record in his last 12 fights. His losses during that span came by decision against rising Bellator lightweight Soren Bak and former UFC featherweight Nad Narimani, while he racked up a win against Julian Erosa who is currently 4-1 in the octagon.
Pimblett might be most known for his outspoken personality, his recent partnership with Barstool, and his haircut resembling Jay from The Inbetweeners, but he's also a pretty good fighter. The Baddy is an excellent grappler with a strong submission game and he's an improving striker that has speed and a solid chin.
Rodrigo "Kazula" Vargas is coming off a unanimous decision win as a +200 underdog against Rong Zhu last April. Vargas is 1-2 in the octagon and has been an underdog in each of those fights, losing to Alex da Silva Coelho in his promotional debut in 2019 before being disqualified against Brok Weaver in 2020 (a bout he appeared to have the edge in before throwing an illegal knee).
The 36-year-old has spent the majority of his career fighting across various smaller promotions in California and his native Mexico. Vargas is a stocky lightweight with some pop in his hands, especially in the inside exchanges, but he's a bit stiff and doesn't move well for this division.
Pimblett vs Vargas tale of the tape
| Paddy Pimblett | Rodrigo Vargas | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 166.8 lbs |
| 73 inches | Reach | 71.5 inches |
| 17-3-0 (6 KOs) | Record | 12-4-0 (7 KOs) |
Pimblett vs Vargas UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Pimblett (-550)
Vargas told reporters on Wednesday that he thinks that Pimblett is "probably overrated" and he's probably right. While Pimblett stopped Vendramini with a flurry of strikes in the first round, he also ate several big left hands and displayed a worrying tendency to keep his chin high and back up in a straight line instead of slipping punches.
That said, Vargas isn't much of a challenge and it seems like The Baddy is being fed easy opponents to build him up slowly and not throw him to the wolves. Vargas really doesn't stand out in any area and Pimblett has the speed, pressure, volume, and grappling to give him fits.
Pimblett will most likely win but these odds are way too lopsided given his poor striking defense, so we're looking elsewhere for a play.
Best bet: Pimblett inside the distance (-188)
While Vargas was likely right in calling his upcoming opponent overrated, Pimblett is also accurate in his assessment that he doesn't have much to gain from beating a mediocre journeyman that is expected to lose. The only way his star continues to rise is by putting on a dominant performance with a finish.
One thing you can't fault Pimblett for is his aggressiveness. While that reckless approach means that he eats some big punches, he has shown the ability to withstand damage and keep attacking. He's a finisher with his last four wins coming by early stoppage (two by knockout and two by submission), and that looks like the best bet in this one.
