Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on March 19 from the O2 Arena in London, England.
This should be a titanic clash between a rising young heavyweight contender in Aspinall and a gatekeeper near the top of the division in Volkov. Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight with UFC betting lines opening with Volkov at -161 before jumping the fence to +100, while Aspinall is now the slim favorite at -125.
Here are our best free Volkov vs. Tybura picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, March 19.
Volkov vs Aspinall fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Volkov vs Aspinall method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +175 | +230 |
| To win by Points | +500 | +380 |
| To win by Submission | +1,600 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of March 15, 2022.
Volkov vs Aspinall picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Volkov vs Aspinall betting preview
Alexander Volkov is the No. 6-ranked heavyweight contender and is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Marcin Tybura at UFC 267 in October. The former M-1 Global and Bellator heavyweight champion is 8-3 under the UFC banner since making his promotional debut in 2016.
Nicknamed "Drago" after the iconic Russian villain in Rocky III, Volkov has high-level kickboxing ability and lands 4.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.95.
Tom Aspinall is at No. 11 in the heavyweight rankings after dispatching Sergey Spivak with a first-round knockout last September. Aspinall is now on a seven-fight winning streak with each of those victories coming by way of finish inside of the first two rounds. He's a perfect 4-0 in the Octagon with three Performance of the Night bonuses.
The 28-year-old has a background in BJJ and boxing and is a very well-rounded heavyweight that combines crisp hands with advanced grappling ability.
Volkov vs Aspinall tale of the tape
| Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-7 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| 263 lbs | Weight | 247 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 34-9 (22 KOs) | Record | 11-2 (8 KOs) |
Volkov vs Aspinall UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Volkov (+100)
As impressive as Aspinall has looked in the promotion, this is a big step up in competition for the British fighter.
Keep in mind that Volkov has only lost three fights in the octagon and they all came against specialists. He wasn't fast enough to keep up with a high-end athlete like Cyril Gane, couldn't handle an elite wrestler in Curtis Blaydes, and was put to sleep by Derrick Lewis' one-punch power (albeit in a fight he was clearly winning until getting finished).
Aspinall should have a speed advantage on the aging (and bulked up) Volkov, but this is a guy who has never gone past the second round in his MMA career. His cardio will be tested against a relatively high-volume striker in Volkov, who is no stranger to headlining events and going the full 25 minutes when needed.
While Aspinall has a grappling advantage, he might find it tough to implement that approach against Volkov, who has displayed much better takedown defense since his loss to Blaydes (including fighting off Tybura on 16 attempts).
There was definitely value on Aspinall when he opened as a dog but with Volkov now at plus money, we'll lean ever so slightly towards the more experienced fighter if playing the moneyline.
Best bet: Live ML on Aspinall after Round 1 (-200 or better)
This is a bit of a different option but given the big jump up in competition for Aspinall, it might be wise to hold off on betting on either fighter until we see how the first round plays out.
While we're bound to see comparisons between Aspinall and fellow rising heavyweight Chris Daukaus who was moved up too fast and was starched by Lewis in the first round as a fave in December, there are key differences. Aspinall is younger, bigger, and has a far more extensive background in combat sports. Either way, Daukaus was exposed by Lewis in the opening round, so it makes sense to see how Aspinall looks in the first five minutes before backing him.
If he can close the gap on Volkov in the striking exchanges and put him on the backfoot, he should have the advantage. Likewise, if he is able to take Drago to the mat. It makes sense to back Aspinall on the live line if either of those things happens early, and you should still get a decent price because of the questions surrounding his gas tank.
