Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler might be the most highly-anticipated fight on the main card for UFC 266 betting on September 25 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This should be a banger between two legends of the sport, with Diaz making his return to the octagon for the first time since 2015. Oddsmakers are expecting a close bout with both fighters currently a pick'em at -110.
Here are our best free UFC 266: Diaz vs. Lawler 2 picks and predictions for Saturday, September 25.
Diaz vs Lawler fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Diaz vs Lawler method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win by KO/TKO | +500 | +340 |
| Win by Points | +260 | +200 |
| Win by Submission | +700 | +3,100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of September 20, 2021.
Diaz vs Lawler betting preview
Nick Diaz will be fighting for the first time in more than six years after a loss to Anderson Silva in January of 2015, which was eventually ruled a no-contest due to Silva testing positive for PEDs. The 38-year-old is a longtime veteran of mixed martial arts across various promotions.
He was formerly the Strikeforce welterweight champion but lost by unanimous decision when he fought Carlos Condit and Georges St-Pierre for the UFC title at 170 pounds. He also faced off against Lawler all the way back at UFC 47 in 2004, with Diaz winning by way of second-round knockout. Diaz is an aggressive, high-volume striker with strong boxing and very dangerous jiu-jitsu skills.
"Ruthless" Robbie Lawler is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Neil Magny in August of 2020 and has lost five of his last six fights. That doesn't take anything away from a fantastic career that saw him win the UFC welterweight title against Johny Hendricks in 2014 before defending that belt with a pair of thrilling victories over Rory MacDonald and Condit.
Lawler is one of the most violent brawlers in UFC history, with a high-pressure style and a powerful left hand. Of his 28 career victories, 20 have come by way of knockout.
Diaz vs Lawler tale of the tape
| Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 39 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 171 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 26-9-0 (13 KO) | Record | 28-15-0 (20 KO) |
Diaz vs Lawler UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Moneyline Lawler (-110) - Frankly, I'm a bit surprised at the line for this fight. Sure, Diaz was a terrific fighter in his prime and is a year younger than Lawler, but ring rust is a thing, and the guy hasn't fought in 80 months and hasn't won a fight in 10 years.
Lawler might be on a losing streak but many of those defeats came against highly-ranked fighters like Colby Covington, Rafael dos Anjos, and a prime Tyron Woodley (yes, there was a time when Woodley actually let his hands go). At least Lawler has been active and that's something that can't be said for Diaz, regardless of how many triathlons he has run.
Look for Lawler's power to be the difference in the stand-up while his takedown defense neutralizes Diaz's grappling advantage.
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