USFL Week 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Encore Season Ready to Rumble

Who doesn’t want more football?

Well, just nine weeks removed from the Super Bowl and eight weeks removed from the revamp of the XFL, a new season begins! The USFL will return this weekend with a new team and new locations.

Last year's campaign saw every game played in Birmingham, Alabama, but this year will be different. Games will be played in multiple locations including Memphis, Canton, and Detroit, with the Memphis Showboats playing their inaugural season right at home.

This opening weekend sees four games: two on Saturday, two on Sunday, and one each day in Memphis and Birmingham. Get ready for the action with my USFL picks and predictions for Week 1.

USFL picks for Week 1

• Memphis ML
• Birmingham -5
• Michigan/Houston Over 38.5
• Pittsburgh/New Orleans Under 37.5

Picks made on 4/12/2023 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Week 1 USFL odds and predictions

Philadelphia Stars vs Memphis Showboats

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

The opening game of the 2023 USFL season will see the defending North Division champions taking on a brand-new team. Although, the Showboats are the same roster and coaching staff from last season’s now-defunct Tampa Bay Bandits. Former NFL coach Todd Haley will return to coach Memphis after coaching Tampa Bay last season to a 4-6 record. 

However, the Showboats will have a new starting quarterback as last year’s USFL leading passer Jordan Ta’amu has moved on to the XFL. Cole Kelley from Southeastern Louisiana will likely get the start in the opener behind center. They also have a new lead running back in Alex Collins from Arkansas, who spent five seasons in the NFL with 29 career starts. 

On the other side, the defending North champs are returning almost their entire offense and defense. Unfortunately, returning leading receiver, Bug Howard, is currently on the inactive list and may be out on Saturday. They also lost the leading return man in the USFL last season, Maurice Alexander, to the NFL. 

Alex Collins may be one of the biggest names in the entire league when it comes to NFL experience and that could be a huge advantage for the hometown team. Memphis also returns an offensive lineman that was All-USFL last season. I like the Showboats to kick off the season with a win at home by dominating the trenches and running the ball successfully. 

Pick: Showboats moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

New Jersey Generals vs Birmingham Stallions

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

The nightcap on Saturday will see the defending champions hosting the team with the best regular season record from last season. Both teams went 9-1 last year but it was the Stallions that went on to win the inaugural USFL championship, now bringing back another strong roster for year two.

Birmingham lost its second and third leading receivers but also added NFL veterans Deon Cain, Jace Sternberger, and Thaddeus Moss. Defensively, it lost its leading tackler to the NFL but will be returning the rest of the major players. Head Coach Skip Holtz will have a great opportunity to repeat with this stellar squad. 

The New Jersey Generals were disappointed in the playoffs last season, scoring only 14 points in a loss to the Stars. The Generals lost leading receiver and return man KaVontae Turpin to the NFL and All-USFL Guard Garrett McGhin to the XFL. Defensively, they will have another strong roster, returning most of the team that allowed just 18.2 points per game last season. 

The Stallions are returning champs with possibly an even better roster than they had last season. Turpin was the most dynamic player in the USFL last year and he will be sorely missed by the Generals. Birmingham will roll at home with likely a good crowd showing up for this game. 

Pick: Stallions -5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Michigan Panthers vs Houston Gamblers

Sunday, 12:00 p.m. EST, NBC

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

The afternoon game on Sunday will see two of the worst teams from last season facing off in Memphis. The Panthers and Gamblers combined for a record of 5-15, with both bringing in a new staff in hopes of better results. Former San Francisco 49ers head coach Mike Nolan will take the helm for Michigan and former Tulane head coach Curtis Johnson takes over for Houston.

The Panthers will have a fresh start after losing not only their general manager and head coach, but also their leading wide receiver and several of their top defensive players from last season.

Quarterback Josh Love started five games last year after Paxton Lynch struggled early. He was serviceable, but not great with 791 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions. He may have a short leash this year with Carson Strong serving as the backup following a stellar college career at Nevada. 

Houston will be led by Kenji Bahar behind center, who took over for the injured Clayton Thorson for the final three games of last season. Bahar threw for 541 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks in those three games.

Terry Wilson will be ready though if Bahar struggles, as Wilson led Kentucky to a 10-win season in college in 2018. The Gamblers will need to reload on defense after losing several starters, including all three players selected to the All-USFL team last year. 

Both teams have relatively new defenses and lost several key contributors from last season on that side of the ball. On offense, if either quarterback struggles, they will likely be replaced quickly with dynamic players from college. There should be some points scored here and we get a low total to try and hit. Give me the Over. 

Pick: Over 38.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Pittsburgh Maulers vs New Orleans Maulers

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

The opening weekend finale will see last year's cellar dwellers taking on a playoff contender in Birmingham. The Maulers went 1-9 and only averaged a measly 14.7 points per game, while the Breakers went 6-4 and only allowed 16.4 points per contest. Pittsburgh will come in with a fresh general manager and coaching staff. 

The Maulers replaced their head coach position with Ray Horton, who spent several years in the NFL as a defensive coordinator. He will get the opportunity to coach a new quarterback in former NFL fourth-round pick James Morgan. Most of the defense will be the same as last year so there could be some good cohesiveness under a defensive-minded coach. 

New Orleans also has a new head coach after Larry Fedora resigned from his position. New head coach John DeFilippo was an offensive coordinator in the NFL for several years and will take over an offense that lost all three stars that were All-USFL last season — including quarterback Kyle Sloter.

Veteran McLeod Bethel-Thompson will get the start under center after spending the last six years in the CFL for the Toronto Argonauts. Defensively, the Breakers are returning many of their key players from last year. 

With both teams starting brand new quarterbacks and returning their top defenders, I lean toward the Under here. The experience of Bethel-Thompson may prove to be vital in this game, but the CFL rules are different from the USFL, so he may have some adjustment period to go through. This game should be low scoring. 

Pick: Under 37.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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