The last week of the regular season in the USFL kicks off this weekend.
It’ll mark the last time all four games are played in Birmingham, Alabama, this year. Birmingham has been home to every team in the league during the 10-week regular season. The playoffs will take place outside the Pro Football Hall of Fame at the gorgeous stadium in Canton, Ohio.
The playoffs are already set, so there should be little drama in this final week. The Philadelphia Stars will face the New Jersey Generals in a preview of next week’s playoff game, while the Birmingham Stallions and New Orleans Breakers look to make it through healthy before their post-season showdown.
Check out our picks and predictions for Week 10 of the USFL.
USFL picks for Week 10
Picks made on 6/16/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 10 USFL predictions
Philadelphia Stars vs New Jersey Generals
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, USA
| Philadelphia Stars | New Jersey Generals | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (-110) | Spread | -2.5 (-110) |
| +120 | Moneyline | -140 |
| Over 41.5 | Total | Under 41.5 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 15.
This is a preview of next week’s playoff matchup. How much will either side show their true cards? With nothing to play for in this spot for either team, it’s highly likely both opt for an alternative game plan so as not to reveal too many secrets that will show up on tape in preparation for next week.
The Stars have the longest odds to win the championship among the four playoff contenders at +400. Bart Andrus has this team moving the ball on offense in a pass-happy scheme that has been altered some following the emergence of star running back Matt Colburn III.
Normally, I would recommend laying the points with the Generals in this spot. If it was the playoffs, I would do exactly that — and confidently. New Jersey is a well-rounded team that has surprised many under head coach Mike Riley. The Stars have a fun offense to watch but have obvious holes, whereas the Generals are a well-rounded team bent on a championship run.
The Generals rank first in both rushing offense and rushing defense. They dominate the trenches in a manner no other team in this league has managed to do. Philadelphia has the worst rushing defense in the league (148.2 ypg) and should get gashed in this spot. Even if new Jersey opts for a conservative game plan, the line should do its thing and it should prevail.
I would normally recommend an Under in this spot considering neither team has anything to play for and is resting up before next week. My concern with that is the Stars generally attempt to turn the game into a shootout.
Pick: Generals -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Birmingham Stallions vs Tampa Bay Bandits
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Birmingham Stallions | Tampa Bay Bandits | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (-105) | Spread | +3.5 (-115) |
| -155 | Moneyline | +135 |
| Over 40.5 | Total | Under 40.5 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 15.
The Stallions are comfortably in the playoffs with an 8-1 record. They have benefitted from playing all of their games in their hometown of Birmingham, giving them some semblance (albeit a minor one) of home-field advantage.
Skip Holtz’s squad is led by J’Mar Smith, a dual-threat quarterback, and Bo Scarbrough, a bruising running back who played college ball for the Alabama Crimson Tide. They’ve been great to back, going 6-3 against the spread.
The Bandits are one of the more overrated teams in the league, in my opinion. They're led by a good quarterback in Jordan Ta’amu. The primary concern is that they don’t do anything well as a football team. Bettors recognize the name Ta’amu and assume his team must be good, but they really haven’t been anything special.
The Stallions have their sights set on the playoffs and we’ve seen that in back-to-back weeks. They slugged through a 10-9 victory over the Breakers in Week 8 before suffering their first defeat in a 17-15 loss to the lowly Houston Gamblers a week ago.
The Gamblers are not a good football team, and Birmingham controlled time of possession and outgained Houston 329 to 187 in total yardage. It went with a conservative game plan to rest up for the playoffs, and I expect we see that again in Week 10. I’ll play the Under.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Michigan Panthers vs Pittsburgh Maulers
Sunday, 12:00 p.m. ET, USA
| Michigan Panthers | Pittsburgh Maulers | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 (-115) | Spread | +2.5 (-105) |
| -135 | Moneyline | +115 |
| Over 42 | Total | Under 42 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 15.
Jeff Fisher’s quest to become the all-time losing coach in both the NFL and the USFL faces a pivotal moment in Week 10. This is arguably the most drama-filled game of the week. Who will finish last place in the league? Who will avoid utter embarrassment and pick up a win?
Both teams sit at 1-8 with one game left to play. Kevin Sumlin’s Gamblers picked up a win a week ago to move to 2-7, so the battle for the league’s worst record all comes down to this matchup on Sunday.
Both teams actually performed somewhat well in defeats a week ago. The Panthers narrowly lost 25-23 to a good Generals team, and the Maulers held a six-point fourth-quarter lead before eventually falling 17-16 to the Stars.
Of the two, I found the Panthers’ performance more impressive. They outgained the Generals 336 to 251 and the duo of Josh Love and Eric Barriere at quarterback was an effective wrinkle. Michigan can move the ball offensively (325.2 ypg), and we’re not confident in Pittsburgh’s ability to do so (256.1 ypg). Both teams have had a revolving door of quarterbacks, but the Panthers' field generals have been much more effective lately than the Maulers'.
This is Jeff Fisher’s Super Bowl.
Pick: Panthers -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Breakers vs Houston Gamblers
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, FS1
| New Orleans Breakers | Houston Gamblers | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (-105) | Spread | +3.5 (-115) |
| -160 | Moneyline | +140 |
| Over 41 | Total | Under 41 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 15.
The Breakers are comfortably in the playoff field and have little to play for. They have the third-longest odds (+380) to take home the championship, but in my opinion, are neck-and-neck with both the Stallions and Generals as the best teams in the league. They rank third in total offense and fourth in total defense.
The Gamblers have issues on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank dead last in the league (345.9 ypg). So that means they’re excellent on the other side of the ball, right? Not so fast — they also rank last in total offense (240.1 ypg).
New Orleans was my favorite play on the board a week ago and it took care of business against the Bandits. It was fighting for a playoff spot and I was confident in its ability to prove the superior team. That’s far from the case this week. It already locked up a playoff spot and has no incentive to pile on the points in this spot.
There can be all the motivation questions in the world, but I still can’t back Houston at this number. It was outgained 329 to 187 by a lifeless Stallions team a week ago and was lucky to come away with the victory. The Gamblers managed just 3.7 yards per play in that spot and now face a tough defense.
Give me the Breakers.
Pick: Breakers -3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
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