After two weeks, we are starting to learn a lot more about how this USFL season will go for each of the teams.
Play gets underway for Week 3 on Saturday with one game in Birmingham, AL and one in Memphis, TN. It continues on Sunday with two more games in a new location for the USFL — Detroit, MI.
After a 2-2 record last week on picks, we are 5-3 on the season.
Check out my USFL picks and predictions for Week 3.
USFL picks for Week 3
Picks made on 4/27/2023 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 3 USFL odds and predictions
New Orleans Breakers vs Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, USA
| New Orleans Breakers | Birmingham Stallions | |
|---|---|---|
| +6 (-110) | Spread | -6 (-110) |
| +200 | Moneyline | -240 |
| Over 48.5 (-110) | Total | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 27.
The New Orleans Breakers won for the second consecutive week by seven points with a 38-31 victory over the Houston Gamblers. In Week 1, they won with defense, but last week they won with offense. However, the defense did come through in some big situations with three interceptions in the second half, including two in the final two minutes of the game.
Bethel McLeod-Thompson again had a great game passing, going 23-for-34 for 251 yards and two touchdowns. He seems to have found a favorite target in Sage Surratt, who had 11 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. That brings his season total to 16 catches for 206 yards on 20 targets.
The Breakers are going to need a combination performance this week as they face the Birmingham Stallions, who just beat the Memphis Showboats 42-2 on Saturday night. It was complete domination from the start in all facets of the game. The Stallions defense has now allowed 10 total points through two games.
Offensively, Birmingham has absolutely found their quarterback in Alex McGough. He was the USFL Offensive Player of the Week with 301 yards passing and four touchdowns to go with 32 yards rushing. The Stallions seem to be rolling through this league, and we may see another casualty in New Orleans this weekend. I will roll with Birmingham to cover until they prove me wrong.
Pick: Stallions -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Memphis Showboats vs Houston Gamblers
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Memphis Showboats | Houston Gamblers | |
|---|---|---|
| +3 (-110) | Spread | -3 (-110) |
| +130 | Moneyline | -150 |
| Over 44 (-110) | Total | Under 44 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 27.
It was a complete systems failure for the Showboats last Saturday, as they totaled 183 yards on 50 plays and turned the ball over twice. Defensively, they allowed 42 points and 463 total points without forcing any turnovers. Their one bright spot was recording a safety, but they were already down 35-0 at the time.
In their comeback attempt in Week 1, Memphis did show signs of life on offense, but after seeing the Philadelphia defense last week, that may have been a bit of a smokescreen. The good news is Houston has allowed 33.5 points per game through two weeks thus far. The Gamblers have their own issues to deal with.
Kenji Bahar has shown signs of greatness in the passing game, but he has also made some crucial mistakes. He was 18 of 30 passing for 266 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday’s loss to the Breakers. However, he also had three interceptions in that performance. That makes five picks in just two games.
Houston got a lift in the special teams department with return man Anthony Ratliff-Williams, who took home the USFL Special Teams Player of the Week in Week 2. He had four kick returns for 136 yards, giving the Gamblers excellent field position throughout the game. Houston will use this advantage and the better offense to outscore Memphis, they just need to limit the turnovers.
Pick: Gamblers -3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Maulers vs Philadelphia Stars
Sunday, Noon ET, NBC
| Pittsburgh Maulers | Philadelphia Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 (-110) | Spread | -6.5 (-110) |
| +200 | Moneyline | -240 |
| Over 42 (-110) | Total | Under 42 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 27.
The Pittsburgh Maulers fell to 0-2 after another disappointing performance in a 20-3 loss to the New Jersey Generals last Sunday. They finally found some semblance of offense by getting the ball to Isiah Hennie out in space. However, it still only led to three total points, and the Pittsburgh offense has now scored only six points in two games.
Defensively, Pittsburgh was great against a decent New Jersey offense. They only allowed 248 yards on 54 plays and only truly surrendered 13 points, as seven more points came off a fumble recovery that led New Jersey to start a drive on the goal line. In Week 1, they held the Breakers to 22 points, who proved to be a much better offense last week.
Philadelphia took a rough loss to Michigan after having a great offensive Week 1, and only scoring 10 points in a 14-point defeat. They did play excellent defense, forcing two turnovers and holding the Week 1 USFL Offensive Player of the Week, Josh Love, to only 15 of 30 passing for 174 yards. However, Philly turned the ball over four times themselves.
The battle of Pennsylvania may very well be an ugly one based on these two teams’ performances thus far this season. It is unlikely we will see a ton of offense, and defense will determine which team comes out on top. Unless the defenses put points on the board, this should be an easy Under.
Pick: Under 42 (-110 at DraftKings)
New Jersey Generals vs Michigan Panthers
Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| New Jersey Generals | Michigan Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (-110) | Spread | -4.5 (-110) |
| +170 | Moneyline | -200 |
| Over 43.5 (-110) | Total | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 27.
The New Jersey Generals got back on track with an easy victory after a crushing Week 1 defeat to Birmingham. However, it took them awhile to get their offense going. Through two games, the Generals only have 30 points, 609 total yards, and have turned the ball over three times.
The Generals are still playing two quarterbacks, and that could very well be the main reason for their inconsistency and scoring issues. De’Andre Johnson looked better last week, but Dakota Prukop was much better in Week 1. New Jersey should just stick with one guy for an entire game if they hope to compete for a title this season.
The Michigan Panthers backed up their surprising Week 1 victory with another great performance last week. While Love took a little step back in his play, Reggie Corbin took a massive step forward. Corbin ran for 131 yards and two touchdowns on only 11 carries last week. He is now tied with Darius Victor as the USFL’s leading rusher.
Michigan will get to play this game in their true home for the first time in the league. I would not be surprised to see a great crowd there to support the local team. Michigan has just played much more consistently, and will use the crowd to pull away late in this game.
Pick: Panthers -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
