After three weeks, we have a new team on top of the USFL standings after New Orleans upset Birmingham. There is now only one undefeated team left, and only one winless team left.
Play gets underway for Week 4 on Saturday with two games in Detroit. Then it continues on Sunday with two more games back in Canton, OH.
After a 2-2 record again last week on picks, we are 7-5 on the season.
Check out my USFL picks and predictions for Week 4.
USFL picks for Week 4
Picks made on 5/3/2023 at 3:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 4 USFL odds and predictions
Houston Gamblers vs Philadelphia Stars
Sat, May 6, 1:00 pm ET
| Houston | Philadelphia | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 | Spread | -2.5 |
| +125 | Moneyline | -145 |
| Over 44.5 | Total | Under 44.5 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 3.
The Houston Gamblers finally got into the win column this season with a 30-26 victory over the winless Showboats last week in Memphis. Houston’s offense has hit its stride with 30+ points in consecutive games. However, they have now allowed 28.7 points per game through three weeks.
The Gamblers blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead against Memphis, but closed strong with a nice two-minute drill that led to the game-winning touchdown. Wideout Justin Hall finished the game with six catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner. Running back Mark Thompson also had two touchdowns through some tough running up the middle, breaking tackles.
The Philadelphia Stars also got their lone win on the season against the Showboats, but that was Week 1, and the Stars have looked progressively worse each week since. Last week, they lost to the Pittsburgh Maulers 21-13, and have now scored a total of 23 points in the last two games. The Stars managed only 18 rushing yards on 18 attempts against Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia is just too one-dimensional on offense, relying on Case Cookus and their top wideouts. They will rack up some yards in the passing game, but with no run game and a predictable offense, they will struggle in the red zone. Give me the Gamblers here to win this game outright.
Pick: Gamblers moneyline (+125 at DraftKings)
Memphis Showboats vs Michigan Panthers
Sat, May 6, 7:30 pm ET
| Team | Team | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 | Spread | -6.5 |
| +215 | Moneyline | -255 |
| Over 43.5 | Total | Under 43.5 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 3.
After a complete debacle for Memphis in the first two weeks, they certainly had a much better showing last week. They played excellent football in the fourth quarter to overcome a large deficit and actually take the lead in the final two minutes. Unfortunately, they were unable to capitalize and get their first win of the season.
Memphis racked up yards through the passing game and special teams, as Cole Kelley threw 21-for-38 for 307 yards and two touchdowns. They also had four kick returns for 123 yards, and three punt returns for 32 yards. Field position was a key factor in the Showboats’ ability to stay in the game with almost no run offense.
The Michigan Panthers took their first loss of the season last week, falling to the New Jersey Generals, 28-13. Josh Love was inaccurate early, which led to him getting replaced by Carson Strong for a few series. Strong was also inaccurate, and the two combined to throw 19-for-40 for 163 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
Michigan’s aggressive defense was taken advantage of by New Jersey with several misdirection plays. Memphis may be able to copy that blueprint and continue their recent offensive successes. Memphis may not get their first win of the season, but I do like them to keep this game close.
Pick: Showboats +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Breakers vs New Jersey Generals
Sun, May 7, 3:00 pm ET
| Team | Team | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | +2.5 |
| -145 | Moneyline | +125 |
| Over 48 | Total | Under 48 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 3.
The New Orleans Breakers anointed themselves as the top dog early in this USFL season after their impressive 45-31 victory over the Birmingham Stallions last week. The Breakers are now the lone undefeated team left. They have also become a complete juggernaut on offense.
The Breakers now have the league’s leading passer, rusher, and receiver as well as a kicker that is a perfect 7-of-7 on field goals and 12-of-12 on extra points. Wes Hills looked like a monster out of the backfield with 191 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 34 carries. That was in addition to McLeod Bethel-Thompson’s 20-of-28 passing for 283 yards and three touchdowns.
New Jersey must have listened to me last week when I clamored that they must play only one quarterback for the duration of a game. De’Andre Johnson was rolling with 180 yards and two touchdowns on 10-of-15 passing and 10 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown. The Generals showed some excellent big play ability with this offense with three touchdowns of over 35 yards.
The Breakers’ defense has been suspect this season, but they came through when it mattered in the second half against Birmingham. The Generals have been inconsistent on offense, so I would feel much more comfortable backing New Orleans in this spot. The Breakers are just unstoppable right now.
Pick: Breakers -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Barrington Stallions vs Pittsburgh Maulers
Sun, May 7, 6:30 pm ET
| Team | Team | |
|---|---|---|
| -7 | Spread | +7 |
| -300 | Moneyline | +250 |
| Over 44 | Total | Under 44 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 3.
The Stallions took their first loss of the season last week, and only their second loss of the two-year history of the league. However, they did not look bad in that defeat. They still managed to score 31 points and played to an impressive 24-24 first half. Alex McGough took a big hit early that took him out of the game for a series, and he looked a little off after coming back.
McGough was held to only three carries for seven yards after rushing for 83 yards on 12 carries in the first two games of the season. The good news is that he was still able to remain relatively accurate, completing 65.4% of his passes against the Breakers. However, he will get a tough test against one of the best defenses in the USFL with Pittsburgh.
The Maulers held Philadelphia to only 13 points last week, and held the best offense in the league to 22 points in Week 1. They are excellent in the red zone, allowing only three touchdowns on 11 red zone attempts. However, offensively, they have been dreadful. They have only one touchdown on nine red zone attempts.
This will be the first game for the Stallions outside of Birmingham. However, it should not impact them too much against a less-talented team. Birmingham will be playing angry after their loss and will take it out on one of the worst offenses in the league.
Pick: Stallions -7 (-115 at DraftKings)
