We were so close to a perfect 4-0 record last week, but alas, we move on. There is at least a positive sign that we are getting a good grasp on this USFL season heading towards the halfway point.
Play gets underway for Week 5 on Saturday with one game in Detroit, and one in Birmingham, AL. The action continues on Sunday with two more games, divided among the same two locations.
After a 3-1 record again last week on picks, we are 10-6 on the season.
Check out my USFL picks and predictions for Week 5.
USFL picks for Week 5
Picks made on 5/11/2023 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 5 USFL odds and predictions
Pittsburgh Maulers vs Michigan Panthers
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, USA
| Pittsburgh Maulers | Michigan Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.5 (-110) | Spread | -3.5 (-110) |
| +155 | Moneyline | -180 |
| Over 42 (-110) | Total | Under 42 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 11.
The Pittsburgh Maulers put up an incredible fight last week in almost upsetting the Birmingham Stallions before falling 24-20. They played stellar defense, forcing two interceptions in the first half to jump out to a 9-0 lead. However, they failed to capitalize with touchdowns, and it ultimately cost them in the end.
The Maulers are now 1-for-12 on the season in converting red zone attempts into touchdowns. They only have two offensive touchdowns combined through four games this season. While they have found some offense in their misdirection plays, they have to be able to convert drives into touchdowns, or they have no chance to win games.
The Michigan Panthers fell yet again and have lost two straight after a hot start to the season. The worst part is they lost to the last winless team in the Memphis Showboats by an ugly score of 29-10. Their offense has completely collapsed from the first two weeks of the season when they were lighting it up.
If this game was played two weeks ago, I would love Michigan on just about any spread. However, now this game is a complete toss up for me. What I do feel confident in is the Under. Neither offense will be able to get into the endzone, and there will be lots of field goals and defense in this game.
Pick: Under 42 (-110 at DraftKings)
Houston Gamblers vs Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, FOX
| Houston Gamblers | Birmingham Stallions | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (-110) | Spread | -4.5 (-110) |
| +170 | Moneyline | -200 |
| Over 48 (-110) | Total | Under 48 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 11.
The Houston Gamblers find themselves on a bit of a roll after defeating the Philadelphia Stars last week, 41-16, for their second consecutive win. The Gamblers have now scored 34 points per game over the last three weeks. They outgained the Stars 463-199 in total yards.
Houston continues to use Kenji Bahar as their main quarterback, but also are utilizing Terry Wilson in special formations and taking advantage of his athleticism. Wilson had 49 yards rushing on nine carries to go with 21 yards passing on three attempts. Running back Mark Thompson was the star player with 134 yards rushing and three touchdowns on only 13 carries.
The Stallions might have been broken a little by the New Orleans Breakers. Alex McGough has struggled mightily since that game, and he was only 17 of 29 passing for 157 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against Pittsburgh. However, he was able to get it going in the run game with 48 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, and an extremely impressive scramble to avoid pass rushers on his one passing touchdown.
I would not be surprised at all to see Houston give Birmingham all they can handle in this game, and possibly even pull off the upset. However, the clear play here is the Over.
Both offenses have the ability to put up 40 or more, and neither defense has been lights-out. This game could be very similar to the New Orleans vs Birmingham barnburner from two weeks ago.
Pick: Over 48 (-110 at DraftKings)
New Jersey Generals vs Philadelphia Stars
Sunday, 12 p.m. ET, NBC
| New Jersey Generals | Philadelphia Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 (-110) | Spread | +6.5 (-110) |
| -245 | Moneyline | +205 |
| Over 43.5 (-110) | Total | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 11.
The New Jersey Generals almost took down the lone undefeated team left in the USFL last week, but ultimately fell to the New Orleans Breakers, 20-17. They were able to limit the best offense in the USFL to only 5.1 yards per play and two touchdowns in five red zone attempts. However, they failed to capitalize on offense with six punts and five three-and-outs.
The Generals did stick with one quarterback despite their offensive woes, and even though they ultimately lost, I think it will be for the better in the long term with consistency. Their issue in that game was their inability to get any time of possession, as they only possessed the ball for 4:19 of the fourth quarter.
Philadelphia has completely fallen apart and may be the new worst team in the league. The Stars have now lost their last three games by a combined score of 86-39 against three opponents with a combined record of 5-7. They only mustered 199 total yards last week against a mediocre defense.
The run game has disappeared for Philadelphia, and New Jersey will take advantage of that. The Generals should get back on track this week against a team that is struggling on all fronts. New Jersey may struggle to score early, but will get it going and run away by the end.
Pick: Generals -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Memphis Showboats vs New Orleans Breakers
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, FOX
| Memphis Showboats | New Orleans Breakers | |
|---|---|---|
| +7 (-105) | Spread | -7 (-115) |
| +245 | Moneyline | -295 |
| Over 48 (-110) | Total | Under 48 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 11.
The Showboats are finally in the win column, and they did it with style over the Panthers last week. However, they still struggled on offense, and really could have dominated that game the way Michigan was turning the ball over. Memphis was 2 of 4 in the red zone converting touchdowns, and only averaged 4.8 yards per play.
While the offense was nothing special, they also made no mistakes. No turnovers and only one sack and two tackles for loss allowed. They will need to be mistake-free and so much more this week against New Orleans. The Breakers are the lone undefeated team remaining in the league.
New Orleans had a rare struggle on offense last week, but they still managed to tally up 358 yards, 38:44 time of possession, and ultimately, another win. McLeod Bethel-Thompson was held from some big plays, but he still went 26-for-37 for 279 yards through the air. Wes Hills grinded his way to 88 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 26 carries.
Memphis is coming off their first win of the season, but I highly doubt they will follow that up by giving New Orleans their first loss of the season. Give me NOLA to win big.
Pick: Breakers -7 (-115 at DraftKings)
