There are only two weeks left in the USFL regular season, and not a single team has been eliminated from playoff contention. Also, not a single team has clinched a playoff berth, so this week is crucial for all eight teams.
Play gets underway for Week 9 on Saturday with one game in Memphis, TN and one in Canton, OH. It continues on Sunday with two more in the same two locations.
After another 3-1 record last week on picks, I am 19-13 on the season.
Check out my USFL picks and predictions for Week 9.
USFL picks for Week 9
Picks made on 6/8/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 9 USFL odds and predictions
Michigan Panthers vs Pittsburgh Maulers
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Michigan Panthers | Pittsburgh Maulers | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 (-110) | Spread | +1.5 (-110) |
| -125 | Moneyline | +105 |
| Over 41 (-110) | Total | Under 41 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 8.
The last time these two teams faced off in Week 5, the Pittsburgh Maulers smoked the Michigan Panthers 23-7. That might have been the worst offensive performance of the season for Michigan, while Pittsburgh got a fantastic game from quarterback Troy Williams. This is a must-win for Pittsburgh, as a loss will eliminate them from playoff contention.
The Panthers played well, but ultimately fell short of pulling off an upset over the New Orleans Breakers last week in a 24-20 loss. They allowed 21 points in the second quarter, but dominated most of the game otherwise. Michigan forced three turnovers and held the Breakers to turn only two of four red zone trips into touchdowns, but they were 0-for-2 themselves in the red zone.
The Maulers lost a third consecutive game since beating Michigan in Week 5 after a 20-19 loss to the Houston Gamblers. Pittsburgh blew a 13-0 lead, losing 14-3 in the fourth quarter alone. They outgained Houston 326-266 in total offensive yards and did not turn the ball over, but they also were only 1-for-3 in converting red zone attempts to touchdowns.
Both teams struggle to score when they get in the red zone, and last game totaled only 30 points. With so much on the line for playoff positioning, it would not surprise me if either team won. Regardless, I think you will see some safer play and a slower pace that should lead to an easy Under in this second matchup.
Pick: Under 41 (-110 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Breakers vs Memphis Showboats
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET, NBC
| New Orleans Breakers | Memphis Showboats | |
|---|---|---|
| pick 'em | Spread | pick 'em |
| -110 | Moneyline | -110 |
| Over 43.5 (-110) | Total | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 8.
The last time these two teams met, they were on very different ends of the spectrum within the league. The Breakers were 4-0 and the Memphis Showboats were 1-3 after getting their first victory in franchise history. It was the start of the Breakers’ offensive struggles in a 17-10 defeat and the early stages of Memphis’s massive winning streak.
New Orleans ended their three-game losing streak that started with these Showboats last week despite their turnover issues and red zone woes. The Breakers will need to get their running game going again after a rough performance of 43 yards on 28 carries last week. They only had 50 yards on 16 carries in their last game against Memphis.
The Showboats continued their five-game winning streak with a 25-16 victory over the New Jersey Generals last week. Memphis completely dominated possession with 40:55, compared to 19:05 for New Jersey. However, they were held to only converting one red zone touchdown in five attempts. They needed six field goals overall to clinch the victory.
This game is a pick-em, and rightfully so with how the Showboats have completely turned their season around. The winner of this game will have complete control over their destiny to make the playoffs and it should be the game of the week. I think both teams will get better at converting their red zone attempts, and we should see a much higher scoring game than their last affair.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Birmingham Stallions vs Houston Gamblers
Sunday, 2:00 p.m. ET, NBC
| Birmingham Stallions | Houston Gamblers | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (-110) | Spread | +3.5 (-110) |
| -175 | Moneyline | +150 |
| Over 45.5 (-110) | Total | Under 45.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 8.
The Birmingham Stallions and Houston Gamblers will be playing for massive playoff implications in a rematch from Week 5. Houston won that game 27-20 thanks to a 20-point fourth quarter. They were without Kenji Bahar, but got an outstanding performance from Terry Wilson to lead the upset.
Birmingham, however, has not lost a game since that defeat. Last week, they got a clutch performance from Alex McGough in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback and defeat the Philadelphia Stars, 27-24. McGough was 24 of 35 passing for 333 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning seven-yard TD pass with 32 seconds remaining.
The Gamblers also had a fourth quarter comeback of their own last week by winning the quarter 14-3 to get a one-point victory. Bahar did not play great and the Gamblers yet again did not use Wilson, but they got a strong performance from running back Mark Thompson, who ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 attempts.
The Stallions can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but if Houston wins, they control their own destiny with tiebreakers. The Stallions have already avenged one loss this season, and now they get the chance to avenge the second. McGough and company will rack up the yards and points in this one.
Pick: Stallions -3.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Stars vs New Jersey Generals
Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Philadelphia Stars | New Jersey Generals | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 (-110) | Spread | +2.5 (-110) |
| -135 | Moneyline | +115 |
| Over 44 (-110) | Total | Under 44 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 8.
When Philadelphia defeated the Generals 24-21 in Week 5, it was a turning point for both teams. The Stars turned that performance into a three-game winning streak, while the Generals fell deeper into a five-game losing streak. Philadelphia can clinch a playoff spot with a win, while a loss for New Jersey eliminates them from contention.
Philadelphia lost a tough game last week against the league’s best team to end their winning streak, but it was still an impressive performance. They had 349 yards of total offense with only one turnover. They also converted two of their three red zone attempts into touchdowns, which is quite the improvement.
New Jersey just continues to slide into a deeper hole that they seem unable to escape from. They had only 19:05 minutes of possession last week and turned the ball over three times. They still have no clue who their starting quarterback is, and are stuck with just playing the hot hand on any given day.
In their last matchup, the Stars won without scoring a touchdown and needed to kick eight field goals. This time, I expect Philly to be able to punch it in a few times with their improved red zone offense. I do not expect New Jersey to improve in the turnover department, and this game could be a rare blowout in this league.
Pick: Stars -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
