After a pedestrian first round, the 2024 WNBA playoffs need some fireworks — and who better than the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty to answer the call as their semifinal series tips off this afternoon?
This star-studded rivalry has only really simmered this season, but we should see the intensity cranked up to 10 in Game 1, and my Aces vs Liberty predictions point to New York landing the first blow.
Check out my WNBA picks ahead of this Sunday, September 29 showdown.
Aces vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Liberty -4 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The past 12 months have surely felt like an eternity for the New York Liberty following their loss to the Las Vegas Aces in the 2023 Finals, but here they are at last with a shot at redemption.
As Sabrina Ionescu put it after New York eliminated the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday, ‘We’ve got some unfinished business,’ and I’m riding with the Liberty against the spread today.
New York has been terrific at Barclays Center all year, posting an 18-5 mark at home, and this core has a steelier edge after coming so close to a championship last season.
The Liberty won all three matchups against Las Vegas this year, including a 79-67 victory in August, and they’re 8-2 in their past 10 outings overall.
Most of all, the hosts’ balance stands out. Sure, Ionescu was the star of Game 2 against Atlanta, but Jonquel Jones had 20 points and 13 rebounds while rookie Leonie Fiebich made 10 of her 12 shots in the opening round.
Then there’s Breanna Stewart, who has the ability to make this Aces frontcourt work on both ends.
Make no mistake, this is still a formidable Las Vegas team, led by unanimous MVP A’ja Wilson, but the visitors made hard work of getting past the banged-up Seattle Storm this week.
In contrast, the Liberty have looked locked in and hungry. I’m predicting a fast, frenzied start for New York on the way to covering this small spread.
Aces vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty -3.5
Sabrina Ionescu Over 22.5 pts+ast
A'ja Wilson Over 10.5 rebounds
This same Ionescu prop was one of my favorites in the first round, and I’m going back to the well today with the Over on a generous line of 22.5 for her points + assists.
Sabrina almost cashed this by half-time on Tuesday, on the way to 36 points and nine dimes. She’s been steady from downtown so far in the playoffs (8-for-18) and she’s the likeliest New York player to bring the Barclays Center crowd into the game.
Ionescu’s production against Las Vegas has been mixed this season, but she had a 23-6-3 line against the Aces in August and I’m wagering on her to be assertive from the jump in Game 1.
I’m also drawn to this Wilson prop. The visitors are going to be so dependent on her rebounding in this series against the Liberty’s frontcourt size, and she averaged 11.9 rpg during the regular season.
Wilson pulled down 13 boards to see off the Storm earlier in the week, and a similar total is within reach in a game where both defenses could be sneakily effective.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Liberty odds
Aces vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +4 | New York -4
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +157 | New York -181
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5
Aces vs Liberty series odds
- Aces: +140
- Liberty: -165
Aces vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Liberty have covered the spread in five of their last six outings after an ATS loss and the 3.5-point line speaks to their superior depth, including Courtney Vandersloot in a bench role.
- September has been a good month for the Aces, who enter today’s battle with a 9-1 SU record across their previous 10 games, but they’re 1-8 ATS in their last nine matchups after an ATS loss.
- The Under is 8-1-1 in Las Vegas’ past 10 contests, and it’s been a winning ticket in the last five meetings between these teams.
- Though these were the two most prolific offenses in the league during the regular season, a line of 163.5 feels too high and the last two matchups between these heavyweight contenders have fallen well short of that total.
Aces vs Liberty trend
The Under has hit in five of New York’s last six games against teams with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Liberty.
Aces vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Aces vs Liberty latest injuries
Aces: No injuries to report.
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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