Team USA vs Team WNBA Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Saturday's WNBA All-Star Game

WNBA All-Star Weekend has finally arrived, with women’s basketball aficionados flocking from around the world to Phoenix ahead of the festivities. 

Ahead of the tip-off of Team USA vs. Team WNBA on Saturday night, I take you through all the angles and odds for the feature event and make my WNBA picks for July 20.

WNBA All-Star Game odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of July 19, 2024.

WNBA All-Star Game predictions

My best bet
Team WNBA +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

It’s obviously not ideal to have your professional league’s season interrupted every four years by the Olympics, but the intriguing format of the WNBA All-Star Game that results from the disruption is one of the silver linings. 

All-Star games in leagues across North America have lost their competitive fire recently, and the way things break down in the Team USA vs. Team WNBA matchups at least ensures the game has some juice.

However, the motivations are not equal on both sides. For the Team USA players, this is still mostly a game played out of obligation to the fans and one more high-level scrimmage to rev up for the Olympics just about a week away. Team WNBA on the other hand, has all kinds of reasons to take this game seriously.

Young star players like Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese in their first All-Star game want to prove they belong among the league’s veterans. Reese is already the queen of outworking her opposition, and if the other team fails to meet her intensity, then she is going to help dominate the possession battle for Team WNBA.

Others like Arike Ogunbowale and Nneka Ogwumike have an axe to grind after yet another pair of snubs by the Olympic squad. The last time the All-Star Game was in the Team USA vs. Team format, Arike scored 26 points on 10-for-18 shooting and took home MVP honors.

Team WNBA won that game 93-85. Revenge, petty or justified, is better motivation than anyone on Team USA can muster.

For her part, Dearica Hamby is in perpetual revenge game mode against the Las Vegas Aces, and the Olympic squad is basically the entire Aces roster and some other players with A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young all making the squad. Not only is Hamby having a career year as the Los Angeles Sparks' top scorer, but she’s averaging north of 25 points per game in three matchups against Las Vegas.

The Olympic team is also at the beginning of a long grueling Olympic road to Gold, while the WNBA team can go all out with a four-week break on the horizon. Some of the Team USA players like Breanna Stewart have already been load-managing games with an eye on the Olympics, and others are facing various injuries and ailments, including Napheesa Collier (plantar fasciitis).

The Team USA side has more on-paper talent, but I expect the stark difference in motivations to play out much as it did in 2021, giving Team WNBA a leg up on Saturday.

WNBA All-Star Game MVP Odds

Player
A'ja Wilson	+475
Sabrina Ionescu	+700
Caitlin Clark	+1,000
Kahleah Copper	+1,100
Jewell Lloyd	+1,200
Kelsey Plum	+1,300
Breanna Stewart	+1,400
Brittney Griner	+1,500
Arika Ogunbowale	+1,500
Alyssa Thomas	+2,500

In recent WNBA All-Star Game history, it has been the guards who have dominated the ball and come away with MVP honors more often than not.

Jewell Loyd, Plum, and Ogunbowale are the last three winners, all guards with elite ball skills who bomb threes. You have to go back to 2013 to find the last forward to win the award: Candace Parker. 

However, there’s a reason that Wilson is a heavy favorite even in a field of stars. Wilson is in the midst of arguably the most statistically dominant season of all time, averaging 27.21 ppg while dominating the glass and defending better than anyone in the W. 

The way Wilson is playing is the one thing that gives me some pause when betting on Team WNBA, and if she wants this award, it’s there for the taking.

WNBA All-Star Game spread and Over/Under analysis

• The spread has been trending slightly in favor of Team USA, going from -4.5 Wednesday morning to -5.5 as of Friday.
• Meanwhile, the total has been sinking like a stone. Opening a tick above 200, that dropped to as little as 192.5 at both bet365 and FanDuel.
• It’s difficult to diagnose what is behind such a dramatic market shift. If effort is lacking in this one, it will be on the defensive side, not the offense. However, such a shift without obvious cause makes me wary of playing the total. 

Team USA vs Team WNBA game info

WNBA All-Star Game latest injuries

Team USA: Napheesa Collier F (Out). 
Team WNBA: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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