Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Young Does a Little Bit of Everything

Ask any traveler to Sin City and they’ll tell you three days in Vegas is just about the perfect amount of time. Any longer, and the bright lights and late nights start to hurt your head.

The Indiana Fever are on Day 3 in the desert and playing their second straight road game against the Las Vegas Aces tonight, hoping to avoid the hangover of a 13-point loss to the reigning WNBA champs on Saturday.

The Aces have been harder on recent opponents than a 7 a.m. wake-up call, boasting an average margin of +22 points during their current five-game winning streak. Las Vegas has taken down monstrous spreads of -17, -18, and -19 in that span but came up short as a 15.5-point favorite in the 101-88 win over Indiana on the weekend. The WNBA odds throw a similar sizable spread at the home side Monday.

I dive into that mountain of chalk as well as the Over/Under total and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Fever at Aces on June 26.

Fever vs Aces best odds

Fever vs Aces picks and predictions

Betting WNBA player props for the Las Vegas Aces is a lot like defending them: you have to pick your poison.

On any night, any member of the starting five can put up 20 points. As bettors, it can be difficult to select just who will go Over or Under their projected points. Case in point: Jackie Young.

Young had scoring totals as high as 20.5 points for Saturday’s game with the Indiana Fever and player models called for 22-plus points from the dynamic guard. Young, however, took a back seat in the scoring department, finishing with just 10 points on 4 of 11 shooting (along with four rebounds and eight assists) while backcourt mate Kelsey Plum erupted for 26 points in the win.

Today’s rematch has Young’s scoring total sitting at 19.5 points O/U, which is just shy of her season average of 20.5. She also has an assist and rebounding totals parked at 3.5, respectively.

Player projections for tonight are calling for between 20 and 23.5 points, 3.5 assists, and close to five rebounds from the 6-foot backcourt staple, which adds up to a ceiling of almost 32 combo stats. Even on the lower side of scoring, that sum is more than 28 for those three categories.

When measured up against her points + rebounds + assist market, we find a notable difference versus Over 26.5 -125. Given those collective projections, the Over 26.5 on points + rebounds + assist should be priced more in the -160 range than its current vig.

Despite Indiana’s recent offensive improvements, its defense still ranks among the worst in the league (105.4 defensive rating). The Fever give up 84.5 points per outing with 53.7 of those tallies coming from rival guards — 65.6% of their total points allowed to the position.

While Young totaled just 22 combo stats on the weekend, she went for 19 points, four rebounds, and four assists at Indiana on June 4.

Given the large spread and big total, bookies have the Aces pegged for another huge night. And while Young may not play up to her point total, she’ll stuff the stat sheet in other ways.

My best bet: Jackie Young Over 26.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-125 at bet365)

Fever vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

Another game, another giant point spread for the Aces. Las Vegas has been cruising since suffering its lone loss of the season, rolling off five wins in a row and pounding on some of the league’s low-tier teams in the process.

However, the Fever have fought hard all season — playing up to their competition — and even Saturday’s 101-88 loss was much closer than it looks. Indiana fell 20 points behind early on but actually won the second half and halted one of the more impressive ATS runs in WNBA history.

Saturday’s point spread hit the board at Las Vegas -14.5 and grew to as large as -16 before coming down to the closing spot of -15.5. Today’s spread opened at Aces -15 and has jumped to -16 at some online markets as of Monday morning.

My WNBA power ratings produced a point spread of Aces -15.3, but Vegas is a tough team to measure considering just how strong it's looked during this current winning run. Las Vegas started the season falling short of expectations, going 4-5 ATS in the opening nine games but then squashed some of the league’s weaker teams in Seattle, Minnesota, and Phoenix.

Indiana was projected to finish near the bottom of the league but the Fever are 5-8 SU and 7-4-2 ATS, including staying within the sizable spread in Vegas this past weekend. Indiana has taken the fight to tougher opponents, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five matchups against teams with a winning record.

The Fever didn’t play terribly in Saturday’s loss, shooting 50% from the field but the gap in 3-pointers and scoring at the foul line was ultimately the difference. Las Vegas buried 11 of 23 shots from distance (against Indiana’s 6-for-16 output) and foul trouble continued to plague the Fever (20.8 fouls per game — most in WNBA), sending the Aces to the charity stripe, where they hit 22 of 27 free throws.

Saturday’s final score blew past the closing total of 170.5 points. That result has today’s total opening at 171 points and immediately moving to as high as 173, as of 9 a.m. ET Monday morning.

Vegas is the highest-scoring team in the WNBA, averaging 93.2 points per game and boasting a league-high offensive rating of 113.1. Those numbers are powered by the third-quickest pace and the most potent 3-point shooting clip in the land.

Indiana’s offense has started to find its form after a slow start to the 2023 campaign. The Fever averaged fewer than 80 points in the first seven games of the schedule but have since posted 87.2 points per contest over their last six (4-2 Over/Under), which includes 88 points against an Aces defense that sits No. 2 in advanced rating.

Fever vs Aces betting trend to know

The Over is 9-2 in Indiana Fever’s last 11 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Aces.

Fever vs Aces game info

Fever vs Aces key injuries

Fever: Grace Berger G (Questionable), Bernadett Hatar C (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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