The New York Liberty own a commanding 2-0 series lead, and the Las Vegas Aces will look to stave off elimination with a home win tonight.
The two-time defending champs surely won’t go quietly in this win-or-go-home contest, but my Liberty vs. Aces predictions expect New York to close out this series on the road.
Read my October 4 WNBA picks to see why you should take the Liberty on the moneyline.
Liberty vs Aces predictions
My best bet
Liberty moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)
My analysis
After losing to the Las Vegas Aces in four games in last year’s Finals, the New York Liberty have been on a revenge tour in 2024.
New York swept the regular-season series 3-0 and has won both playoff matchups so far. The Liberty can deliver the knock-out blow tonight and eliminate the possibility of an Aces comeback, and are keenly aware of this.
Dating back to the regular season, the Liberty are 8-2 straight up across their last 10, and a perfect 4-0 in the playoffs, after finishing the regular season with league’s best record. The Liberty also finished with the best road record at 16-4. Las Vegas has home-court advantage tonight, but that advantage may be overstated after finishing the regular season with a 14-6 road record compared to just 13-7 at home.
New York owned a WNBA-best 11.7 net rating in the regular season, compared to the Aces’ 6.5. The Liberty have been even better in the postseason, outscoring opponents by 12.3 points. The Aces, however, have played in much closer games and sport a 1.3 net rating through four games.
New York is unbelievably motivated, and the Liberty will want to slam the door on any whisper of a Las Vegas comeback by putting the series away tonight. I’m taking the Liberty straight up.
Liberty vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty moneyline
A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 points
Sabrina Ionescu Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists
A'ja Wilson enjoyed a historic campaign in which she averaged 26.9 points per game and scored 1,021 total points — both WNBA all-time records. Her scoring has taken a dip in the playoffs, as she’s averaging just 22.5 points per contest. Wilson’s points prop is set a little low for such a momentous game, and I’m confidently taking the Over.
Las Vegas is on the brink of elimination, and it would be shocking if the reigning MVP and single-season scoring leader didn’t come out swinging tonight. Wilson has scored at least 24 points in two of four playoff games, and she hit the Over on this prop in 30 of 42 games on the season overall. That includes 15 of 21 games at home.
It’s hard to bet against Sabrina Ionescu in this pivotal matchup. Her PRAs line has only gone up by one since Game 2, and I’m happy to keep going back to the well. Ionescu has averaged 35.3 PRAs in the postseason, and she’s hit the Over on this prop in three straight.
In five matchups with the Aces this season, Ionescu averaged 29.4 PRAs and hit the Over four times. She delivered a monster 24/9/5 line in Game 2, and she’ll be key in delivering a victory — and a Finals berth — for the Liberty tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Aces odds
Liberty vs Aces live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: New York +2 | Las Vegas -2
- Moneyline: New York +117 | Las Vegas -127
- Over/Under: Over 166 | Under 166
Liberty vs Aces series odds
- Liberty: -900
- Aces: +600
Liberty vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Liberty are 8-2 straight up across their last 10 and 5-4-1 ATS in that span.
- Despite losing two straight, the Aces are 7-3 across their last 10 and 6-2-2 ATS in those contests.
- New York is 22-22 to the Under this season, but has gone Over in each of its last three.
- Las Vegas is 19-24-1 to the Under but, like the Liberty, has hit the Over in three straight.
Liberty vs Aces trend
The Liberty owned the best road record at 16-4, and New York is 5-0 against Las Vegas straight up in 2024. The last time the Aces beat the Liberty at home was nearly a full calendar year ago, on October 11, 2023. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Aces.
Liberty vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Friday, 10-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Liberty vs Aces latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Aces: Kiah Stokes (C) Out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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