The Minnesota Lynx are a perfect 5-0 since the Olympic break and they’ll look to keep rolling tonight as they visit the inconsistent Phoenix Mercury.
Led by Napheesa Collier, my Lynx vs. Mercury predictions believe the Lynx simply have too many scoring options for the Merucy to defend.
Find out more in my WNBA picks for Wednesday, August 28.
Lynx vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Lynx -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
After a pair of victories over the Las Vegas Aces last week, the Minnesota Lynx have unquestionably arrived as a WNBA championship contender, and they’re cruising towards the best record in the Western Conference.
There’s a real seriousness to the way that Cheryl Reeve’s team is playing, and I’m picking Minnesota to take care of business again tonight, extending its winning streak to seven games.
It helps that the Lynx have owned this matchup in recent years. They’re 8-2 in the past 10 meetings, covering the spread in each of those victories, and they’re 5-0 ATS overall since the season resumed.
Napheesa Collier is rightly getting the bulk of the attention — she’s averaged almost 28 ppg in her last four outings — but she has plenty of help on this well-balanced offense.
Kayla McBride poured in 19 points against Indiana, Courtney Williams continues to be an X-factor and Bridget Carleton has heated up from 3-point range. That’s been the formula for Minnesota scoring at least 87 points in each of its past four contests.
While there’s no denying the talent on this Phoenix Mercury roster, even with Rebecca Allen out, the Mercury simply haven’t been able to put all the pieces together often enough this year. Their 16-15 record says it all.
Brittney Griner had a big game against the Liberty earlier this week, but I see the Lynx doing enough to contain her in the paint and slow down Kahleah Copper on the perimeter. Minnesota boasts an 8-5 mark on the road this season and the visitors are the easier team to trust in this spot.
Lynx vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx -4
Courtney Williams Over 10.5 points
Natasha Cloud Over 6.5 assists
The Lynx offense has been pressing all the right buttons lately, and I expect steady contributions across the starting five again here. But it’s the Courtney Williams points prop that stands out to me, with the Over on 10.5 looking like good value.
She’s scored 13 or more points in four of her last five games, cashing in on the extra attention that Collier draws. As a reliable presence in the Minnesota backcourt, Williams has even upped her game from downtown since the Olympic break, knocking down five of her nine 3-pointers.
Like Williams, Natasha Cloud can sometimes get overshadowed by the bigger stars around her, but she’s a key cog for the Mercury and she’s put together back-to-back games with seven assists.
I’m taking the Over on the 6.5 O/U line for Cloud’s assists tally, and I’m trusting her to get the Phoenix offense back on track after the hosts only scored 70 points against New York this week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Mercury odds
Lynx vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -3.5 (-115) | Phoenix +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -175 | Phoenix +145
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 (-115) | Under 162.5 (-105)
Lynx vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- With the Lynx offense in top gear, it leaves the Mercury as home underdogs, and Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning record.
- Minnesota is 3-0-1 ATS in its past four Wednesday games and has covered the spread in five straight games playing on three or more days’ rest.
- The O/U total line is set at 162.5, and it’s tough to pick the Under when the Lynx have fallen just short of the 100-point mark in two of their last three contests.
- The Over is 3-1-1 in the Mercury’s last five games following an ATS loss, but the Under has been a winning ticket in Minnesota’s last four road contests.
Lynx vs Mercury trend
The Lynx are 14-2 ATS in their past 16 matchups against the Mercury in Phoenix. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Mercury.
Lynx vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North Extra, Arizona's Family Sports |
Lynx vs Mercury latest injuries
Lynx: No injuries to report.
Mercury: Rebecca Allen G (Out), Charisma Osborne G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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