With the best record in the West, the Minnesota Lynx open the first round of the playoffs against a Phoenix Mercury team that limped to the finish line.
The Lynx are a 10-point home favorite, but my Lynx vs. Mercury predictions see Napheesa Collier putting in work.
Find out why in my WNBA picks for Sunday, September 22.
Mercury vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Napheesa Collier Over 31.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
A big reason the Minnesota Lynx cruised to the top seed in the West this season is because of Napheesa Collier’s play.
The 27-year-old has been an unstoppable force for the Lynx, leading the team in points per game (20.4) and rebounds per game (9.7) while dealing out the second-most assists per game (3.4).
In four games against the Phoenix Mercury this season, the four-time All-Star is averaging 32.4 combined points, rebounds, and assists, despite playing 33.9 minutes per game in those contests — fewer than her regular season average of 34.7.
It’s fair to assume in a playoff game she'll see even more action - upwards of 35 minutes — and if she keeps cooking Phoenix the way she has all season, she should top this number.
Collier has been at her best as a shooter against the Mercury, hitting a whopping 62.5% of her threes and 90.9% of her free throws. That will come in handy in Game 1 with Phoenix allowing the most 3-pointers per game this season (9.4).
However, it's her rebounding and playmaking that should put her over the top. The Mercury allow the most rebounds per game (37.0) and the second-most assists per game (22.0).
In three of her four regular season games against Phoenix, Collier finished with double-digit rebounds - she also averaged more assists against the Mercury (3.8) than her regular season average (3.4).
Collier proved last year that she’s at her best under the playoff spotlight when she averaged a combined 33.2 points, rebounds, and assists in a three-game series against the Connecticut Sun.
Mercury vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Napheesa Collier Over 31.5 pts/reb/ast
Bridget Carleton 2+ threes
Kahleah Copper Under 16.5 points
30% boost available
What’s made Minnesota such a dangerous matchup this season is having a superstar like Collier surrounded by high-level 3-point shooters like Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, and Bridget Carleton.
It’s the Canadian, Carleton, who is in for a big Game 1 against the Mercury. She’s hit a jaw-dropping 44.4% of her threes this year and averages 2.3 makes per game — she’s hit at least two in 26 of 39 games.
She’s been on fire as of late, too, hitting 2+ in 11 of her last 14 games while averaging 2.6 makes per game.
With Collier and Carleton poised to explode, the Mercury will need Kahleah Copper to snap back into form. But I’m not so sure she will.
Minnesota allows the second-fewest points per game (75.6) and ranks second in defensive rating (96.5). The Lynx allow the lowest field goal percentage in the league (41.0%) - and both the lowest 3-point percentage (30.1%) and 2-point percentage (46.4%).
Meanwhile, Copper has gone Under 16.5 points in seven of her last eight games while averaging just 14 points per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Lynx odds
Mercury vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +10.5 | Minnesota -10.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix +400 | Minnesota -550
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Mercury vs Lynx series odds
- Mercury: +600
- Lynx: -900
Mercury vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 10.5-point favorite with most books sitting between -9.5 and -10 as tip-off approaches.
- The Lynx are 25-14-1 ATS this season while the Mercury are 20-18-1.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 159.5, but has since come down to between 157.5 and 158.5.
- Minnesota is just 15-23-2 betting the Over this season and Phoenix is 19-19-1.
Mercury vs Lynx trend
The Lynx have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Lynx.
Mercury vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mercury vs Lynx latest injuries
Mercury: Charisma Osborne (out), Rebecca Allen (out)
Lynx: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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