The Connecticut Sun will look to bounce back from a rare loss as they host the Phoenix Mercury at Mohegan Sun Arena on Sunday afternoon.
The Sun took a 3-point loss at home to the league-leading New York Liberty on Wednesday but are still significant favorites in the WNBA odds today against the Mercury, who are coming off their own 95-86 loss against the Indiana Fever on Friday.
I’ll take a look at whether we can expect another dominant display from the Connecticut defense in my WNBA picks and Mercury vs. Sun predictions for July 14.
Mercury vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Sun -9 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
We may have quickly moved past the superteam era of the WNBA, but there’s still a group of teams that have separated themselves from the pack. There are only five teams with positive point differentials in the league this year, all at +6.0 or better, and the Connecticut Sun are among the best of that group.
That’s why, although the Phoenix Mercury have slotted comfortably into the No. 6 seed in the WNBA, and look like an excellent bet to stay in that position right through to the playoffs, there’s a considerable gap between them and the Sun or any of the other top teams in the league. While Phoenix is loaded with veteran talent, the team hasn’t been able to play much defense, posting a 104.3 defensive rating and allowing 85.3 points per game on the season.
When the Mercury are playing well, it’s because they’re still able to score the ball with just about anyone in the league. Kahleah Copper (23.5 ppg), Brittney Griner (18.5 ppg), and Diana Taurasi (16.6 ppg) are all well beyond the points of proving they can torch opposing defenses, particularly in the right matchup.
However, Connecticut is not the right matchup. The Sun have been a highly efficient defensive team this year, playing to a 93.7 defensive rating (second in the league) and rebounding the ball as well as any team in the league. Connecticut is holding Phoenix to less than 60 points per game in their two meetings this season, with the Mercury shooting just 33.3% in those games.
Phoenix has been particularly dreadful from deep against Connecticut, shooting a combined 4-for-44 in the first two games. If the Mercury can’t solve the Sun’s defense, particularly in the perimeter, there’s little hope of them staying in Sunday’s game.
That’s because the Sun, like most of the top teams in the WNBA, are fully capable on both sides of the ball. DeWanna Bonner (17.1 ppg) leads a balanced offense that features five players scoring in double figures. While Connecticut is only average in true shooting percentage (52.8%), they use outstanding offensive rebounding to remain efficient with their possessions and outscore opponents.
We’ve seen nothing in the first two meetings to suggest Phoenix will suddenly solve the Connecticut defense, or slow down a Sun attack that has scored 76.5 ppg in their first two meetings. As such, the Sun should walk away with a comfortable victory at home this afternoon.
Mercury vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun -9
Under 155.5
The Sun should be able to waltz to a victory this afternoon, and that will primarily be on the back of their defense. That’s why I’m combining a bet on Connecticut to cover the spread with the Under for today’s same-game parlay.
These teams have played to the Under in each of their first two meetings. In particular, the last meeting in Connecticut saw the Sun hold the Mercury to just 47 points. While we can’t expect Connecticut to be quite that dominant again, its defense should hold the Mercury down and keep the game Under the total this afternoon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Sun odds
Mercury vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs. Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +7 | Connecticut -7
- Moneyline: Phoenix +250 | Connecticut -310
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Mercury vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- Phoenix has gone 10-6 against the spread this season, while Connecticut is 7-10 ATS on the year.
- The Sun are 8-2 straight up against the Mercury in their last 10 meetings overall and are 6-4 ATS in those matchups.
- The Under has done well for bettors on both teams this year, going 9-7 in Phoenix’s games and 10-7 when Connecticut plays.
- Both meetings between these two teams have hit the Under this season, and both have gone Under tonight’s total of 155.5 points.
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Mercury vs Sun trend
Connecticut is 2-0 ATS against Phoenix in their two matchups this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Sun.
Mercury vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Mercury vs Sun latest injuries
Mercury: No key injuries to report.
Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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