The Top 2 teams in the East collide tonight as the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun continue their rivalry in this potential Conference Finals preview.
Fresh off winning the Commissioner’s Cup Championship last week, the Liberty are riding high with a three-game lead over the Sun. New York took care of business against the Phoenix Mercury last Friday behind 22 points from Betnijah Laney and more hot shooting from Sabrina Ionescu.
With a 6-4 mark in their last 10 games, the Sun have lost ground in the race for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. But they’ve rallied with back-to-back victories, including a 68-64 rockfight against the Washington Mystics on Tuesday.
Check out our free Liberty vs. Sun WNBA picks and predictions for a closer look at Thursday night's matchup.
Liberty vs Sun best odds
Liberty vs Sun picks and predictions
Anyone who thought the New York Liberty would cruise to top spot in the East failed to factor in this talented, relentless Connecticut Sun roster. But as we head towards the WNBA playoffs, New York’s star power is tough to bet against.
This feels like a good spot for the visitors, who’ve had almost a week since their last game (Connecticut has played twice since then) and scored 85 points against the Mercury despite Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot combining for 5-of-19 shooting.
The Liberty have also had the upper hand in the teams’ two previous meetings this season, with a blowout at Barclays Center followed by a tighter 89-81 victory at Mohegan Sun Arena in late June, with Stewart scoring a game-high 24 points.
As good as Connecticut’s defense has been in 2023, I’m riding with a New York team that’s firing on all cylinders and has the ability to pull away with an avalanche of jump shots. The Liberty did exactly that in Phoenix last time out, scoring 32 points in the third quarter.
The trends point to New York too. The Liberty are 7-1 in August and six of those wins have come by a double-digit margin. Ionescu, building off her 3-point shooting clinic at All-Star Weekend, has knocked down five or more triples in four of her last seven games to spearhead an efficient offense.
New York has covered the spread in each of its last four contests against Eastern Conference opponents, and I’m counting on the visitors to continue that streak tonight.
My best bet: Liberty -5.5 (-105 at Betway)
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Liberty vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
New York is a deserving favorite here and the line feels about right for what should be a playoff-like atmosphere in Uncasville tonight. I’ve already picked the Liberty ATS, and their 13-3 road record just strengthens that case.
Despite their 9-5 home record, it’s a big ask to expect this defense-first Sun team to keep pace with New York’s balanced offense. Connecticut has reached 85 points just once in its eight outings this month, and there’s a heavy burden on DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas, who were a combined 8-for-29 in the teams’ last meeting.
Just don’t count on this being a true shootout. The Under is 8-1 in New York’s last nine games, and 6-1 in their past seven outings after a win. Meanwhile, Connecticut’s last six matchups against fellow Eastern Conference teams have also cashed in the Under.
I like that logic and expect the Sun to find a way to at least slow down this Liberty offense and make Stewart, Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones work for their buckets. Jones may need to be more aggressive as a scorer here after taking just 12 shots for 14 total points over her last two games.
Whether the hosts can put up enough points themselves is another story, but there’s plenty of reasons to respect Connecticut’s stingy defense, which is allowing just under 79 points a game this year – the best mark in the league.
While the Over has been a big factor at Mohegan Sun Arena (9-2 in the Sun’s last 11 home games), keep in mind that the Under is 8-3 in the teams’ last 11 meetings.
Liberty vs Sun betting trend to know
The Under has been a winning ticket lately when the Liberty are on the road. It’s 6-1 in New York’s last seven games away from Barclays Center. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Thursday, August 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Liberty vs Sun key injuries
Liberty: None.
Sun: Brionna Jones F (Out), Bernadett Hatar C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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