Best WNBA Player Props for 9-29: Best Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Bridget Carleton and Napheesa Collier

Prop bet #1: Sabrina Ionescu Over 22.5 pts+ast

-120 at bet365

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu and the Lady Liberty are on a mission. Last season's runners-up have the best record in the WNBA, and they would like nothing more than to eliminate the two-time defending champs, the Las Vegas Aces.

Ionescu is New York's primary leading scorer and top playmaker. She’s averaging 26.5 points and seven dimes during the playoffs, and 17.3 points and 6.3 helpers across three games this season against the Aces.

The Liberty guard has been shaky this season from downtown, but she began taking the ball to the cup and became a double threat. She either goes all the way to the rack or dishes a dime for a layup to Breanna Stewart or Jonquel Jones.

That’s exactly how Ionescu and NY have beaten Vegas this season, and I expect her to have a big day of dishing and swishing. The Aces' defense was much better during September, but they didn’t have an answer for Ionescu during the regular season and won’t find an easy answer today.

Ionescu averaged Over 23+ points and assists against the Aces this season, and is coming off a huge, 36-point, nine-assist night against the Atlanta Dream. She may clear her prop number on just her scoring, but the dimes she’ll surely drop in addition to the buckets she’ll score makes her points and assists combo a good bet today.

Prop bet #2: Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 threes

+116 at FanDuel

The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun meet for Game 1 of their best-of-five semifinal series, and this should be a tough, physical series.

The Sun are the top defensive group in the WNBA. They make life miserable for shooters inside and outside the arc, and that makes it hard on opposing offenses.

Part of the Sun defensive success is due to guards Tyasha Harris and DiJonai Carrington. Those two hound, pester, and trap guards but Harris got hurt and reserve guard Marina Mabrey isn’t the same type of defender.

Since the Harris injury, the Sun allowed 37% from downtown and well below Connecticut’s season average (31%). That should open the door for guard Bridget Carleton to get plenty of wide-open looks from downtown. 

The seven-year guard is draining a career-high 41% from downtown, and her resurgence from long-range has been a boon for Minnesota. The Lynx leads the league in dimes, and their unselfishness and Carleton’s improved shooting fueled her 3+ triples in three of her last five.

Carleton will get plenty of wide-open looks and should drain three triples today. 

Prop bet #3: Napheesa Collier Under 23.5 points

-110 at Caesars

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier has been the catalyst for the Lynx success on both ends of the floor but asking her to score 24 points against the Connecticut Sun might be too much to ask. 

The 2024 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year has been on fire recently on the offensive end; the UConn grad has scored 25+ in each of her last three games, including 25 in a two-point victory at Connecticut.

While those scoring numbers were awesome, Collier also benefitted from 14 attempts from the charity stripe in her last two against foul-happy Phoenix. The Sun didn’t commit many fouls and sent her to the line twice in her 25-point night.

That’s why I’m going Under on Collier’s points-scored prop. Connecticut is extremely physical and allows only 42% shooting from inside the arc. The Sun’s physicality doesn’t lead to many fouls, and without the free throws, Collier will have to work very hard to get buckets.

I expect Collier to have a strong ballgame, but clearing 24 points will be hard. The pace won’t be there for her and neither will the free-throw attempts. She’s been on fire, but I see her doing more of the little things, like rebounding and passing which means ending Under 23.5 points tonight.