Best WNBA Player Props Today: Sun Can't Contain Collier

Prop bet #1: Williams Under 5.5 assists

The total for the Connecticut Sun vs. the Minnesota Lynx has been pegged at just 154 and with good reason. These are the two best defenses in the league and two of the most physically punishing to play. That immediately makes me think Under on these Courtney Williams odds.

While points props have been slashed across the board, her assist prop remains equivalent to those of a typical game. But this isn't a typical game.

Both teams have a plethora of good to great defensive answers for the offensive problems posed by the other team, and the kind of system assists that determine the low watermark of production for a player like Williams figure to be nearly or entirely absent tonight.

Williams could be motivated to play her former team, but that’s not enough for me to stay away from an Under here. She’s averaging just 4.3 dimes over her last six games and has only had more than five once in that span. 

Williams only had six or more assists in seven of the 19 games she’s played all year, most of those earlier in the season when she was more frequently exceeding the 30-minutes played threshold — something she’s only now done once in the last 13 games.

Courtney Williams prop: Under 5.5 assists (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Collier Over 9.5 rebounds

The Lynx have butted their way into the contender conversation this season because of their defense and collective chemistry, but those things wouldn’t matter in the grand scheme of things if not for Napheesa Collier. Collier made first team All-WNBA last year and is a good bet to do so again, averaging an efficient 20 points per game and acting as a hub for the Lynx offense as a passer.

She’s also arguably underrated as a rebounder. Collier is a 6-foot-1 forward but rebounds better than most W centers. She’s averaging a career-best 10.4 boards this season — nearly two more than last year — largely just because of dogged commitment and good positioning.

The Sun are a strong rebounding team, which is why these Napheesa Collier odds expect her to go below her average. But she’s averaged 11.5 rebounds over her last four games, and in the one game the Lynx played against the Sun earlier this year, she notched another 11.

Similar to Alyssa Thomas on the Sun, Collier has proven capable of handling massive minute totals in key games. Given this one is between the teams with the second and third-best records in the W, I’d expect Collier to play into the high thirties. That gives her ample time to hit double digits on the glass.

Napheesa Collier prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Dolson Over 2.5 threes

I played Stefanie Dolson’s 3-point shooting prop on Saturday against these same Las Vegas Aces, and she rewarded me by going 5-for-6 from downtown. 

Dolson is coming off what counts as a down game for her. While she didn’t miss from the outside, she only went 1 of 1 from deep against the Los Angeles Sparks. These Stefanie Dolson odds are being offered at plus odds for the rematch against Las Vegas, probably for that reason.

While I don’t doubt the Aces will want to do a better job guarding Dolson behind the arc, the structural reasons for her success (in addition to her being a deadeye sniper as a center) remain the same as they did five days ago.

Vegas allows the fourth most opponent-attempted threes of any W team, but crucially it also allows the highest rate of makes at 37.7%. While that latter number is often subject to simple variance, it’s a trend held all season long that jives with what seems to be a militant desire to keep their players planted in the paint and closeouts that have not been as sharp as in seasons past.

Ultimately there is simply too much value here at +150 for a player that has made at least four threes in four of her last six games to ignore. Dolson has a questionable tag on her, so even if she doesn't play this bet will just void.

Stefanie Dolson prop: Over 2.5 threes (+150 at bet365)