Best WNBA Player Props Today: Vandersloot's Gala in New York City

Brooklyn’s Finest

The New York Liberty are large favorites hosting the Seattle Storm tonight, with the New York team total ticking upwards. That means plenty of points and plenty of assists, as New York owns the best assist-to-field goal ratio in the WNBA (77.1%).

Point guard Courtney Vandersloot has been dishing out the bulk of those dimes in her first season in the Big Apple, averaging 8.4 assists in 2023. Her player projections for today’s tilt with Seattle sit between 7.3 and 8.5 helpers, with my number parked just north of eight assists.

The assist prop market is balancing between 7.5 and 8.5 assists for the veteran guard, with Over 7.5 available at -115 at DraftKings. Given her modelling, this is a proper price but some bookies are dealing the Over 7.5 assists as high as -130.

Seattle allows a whopping 90.2 points per road game with those foes registering a league-high 22.2 assist in those away matchups. Vandersloot is coming off a 10-assist outing versus Indiana on Sunday and had seven, 13 and 11 dimes in the previous three encounters with the Storm this season.

Courtney Vandersloot Total Assists: Over 7.5 (-115 DraftKings)

Fever For the Flava

The Indiana Fever head to Hollywood for tonight’s showdown with the L.A. Sparks. The Fever are still without standout forward NaLyssa Smith, which means the team is leaning heavily on its other stars to pick up the slack.

Tonight’s WNBA projections say guard Kelsey Mitchell will do the lion’s share of that slack sharing. She’s pegged for as many as 20.5 points by some models, with my number coming out at 18.22 points.

Oddsmakers have Mitchell’s point prop sitting as low as 15.5 (Over -139) while most markets are dealing 16.5 points at Over +102. Given her forecast, the Over 15.5 should be priced more in the -175 range while the Over 16.5 should be dealing around -135.

Mitchell averages 16.6 points on the season and while her output has dipped a bit to 15.7 points per game in July, Indiana is taking on a Los Angeles defense that has lost its foothold in recent outings.

The Sparks are giving up a league-high 92.3 points against this month and their defensive rating has slipped from 96.6 in the first 13 games to 107.8 over the past nine outings.

You can either shop for the lower total on Mitchell’s points (15.5 Over -139) or really squeeze some solid positive expected value from this prop at Over 16.5 with most places offering a plus-money return. 

Kelsey Mitchell Total Points: Over 15.5 (-139 BetRivers)

Sun Block

The Connecticut Sun pose a tough challenge for the streaking Wings tonight, putting Dallas’ five-game winning run to the test.

The Wings don’t give up anything easy, ranking among the top teams in points allowed off turnovers, second-chance buckets, and points given up in the paint – budging for just 32.5 points inside the key on the season.

Closing down the lane will be imperative to slowing Connecticut do-it-all forward Alyssa Thomas. She’s scoring almost 15 points a night with 10 of those tallies coming inside the painted area. Projections for Thomas are either on that 15.5-point fence or lower, with some models predicting 14 points against Dallas' defense.

The scoring market for Thomas ranges from 14.5 to 15.5 O/U with the Under 15.5 priced at -115 at DraftKings. She’s always stuffing the stat sheet but her offensive outputs have been below that 15.5-point bar in each of the past three outings, with Thomas shooting worst than 38% from the field in that span.

Thomas recorded 13 points in a win over the Wings back on June 4, finishing the game shooting just 3 for 9 from the field and adding seven points from nine free-throw attempts. She’ll have to battle for every single point in what is the most exciting matchup on Tuesday’s slate.

Alyssa Thomas Total Points: Under 15.5 (-115 DraftKings)