Best WNBA Player Props Today: You Bonner Believe It

DeWanna Bet?

The Sun have a solid chance of catching the Dream in a letdown spot Thursday, with Atlanta coming off a huge road upset in New York two days ago.

Connecticut opened as a 7-point favorite and has grown to -8, with Atlanta playing its second road game in three days and in the midst of a nasty stretch of schedule featuring the top teams in the WNBA. That includes another meeting with the Sun, who beat up on the Dream 89-77 in Atlanta last weekend.

DeWanna Bonner was one of five Sun players to score 12 or more points in that win, finishing with 15 points on 5-for-12 shooting, including a 2-for-7 mark from beyond the arc. Bonner is averaging more than 17 points per outing and has positive projections heading into Thursday.

WNBA player models call for as many as 21.1 points from the veteran forward, with my number sitting at 19.3 points for Bonner. That looks like a solid Over given her scoring prop is at 16.5 (Over -115).

The 6-foot-4 Bonner thrives in transition, leading the Sun in points off turnovers and fastbreak buckets. The Dream sit second in turnovers per contest (16.6) and those have been flipped into 18.3 points from those errors. A tired and unfocused Atlanta side is ripe for more mistakes and Bonner will be there to make them pay.

DeWanna Bonner Total Points: Over 16.5 (-115 at bet365)

Books Bullish On Boston

The WNBA is a wild market to follow. Because it’s a niche sport, you’ll find varying odds from book to book. Case in point: Aliyah Boston’s points prop.

Boston and the Fever are in Chicago tonight, with Boston’s total points prop sitting as low as 13.5 points (Over -115) at bet365. Across the street at DraftKings, the total points for the 2023 No. 1 overall pick is priced at 16.5 (Over -125) — a three-point difference in the market. And at FanDuel, her prop is at 17.5 (Under -120) — a four point gap from the low.

Given Boston is coming off a 23-point performance in the win over Washington Tuesday, and the fact she scored 25 against this same Sky team in their overtime matchup on June 6, you could see why oddsmakers are high on her output in a return matchup with Chicago.

However, the WNBA player projections aren’t as optimistic, with her scoring forecast between 12.8 and 14.6, and my number at 13.8 points for the former South Carolina star.

Given the mixed odds, shorter team totals, and the Fever’s league-low pace rating, points will be harder to come by than the last matchup between these rivals. Both teams shot better than 50% from the field in that June 6 meeting (Indiana 55%), so don’t expect another shootout in the Windy City tonight.

I’m going Under the 17.5 points on the high end of the total, but there is a window to middle this prop market given the four-point difference from one shop to the next and player projections landing right in-between. 

Aliyah Boston Total Points: Under 17.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Jumpers From Jewell

That’s one spicy spread for the Storm’s visit to Sin City tonight, with the Aces laying as much as 18.5 points.

The last time these teams met, Las Vegas busted Seattle for 41 points on its own floor in the season opener. Storm star Jewell Loyd scored 22 points in that one-sided effort, including going 3-for-8 on 3-point attempts.

Loyd will shoulder the scoring load for Seattle again tonight, and the best No. 2 guard in the league has some lofty scoring projections, with her points prop at 24.5 O/U. Instead, I’m looking at Loyd’s 3-point market and taking the Over 2.5 triples made at +105.

Player models call for 2.2 makes on six shots from deep but given the massive spread and tall total, the Storm will be playing from behind in an up-tempo game. That means Loyd will be called on to take and make a lot.

She’s averaging 2.9 triples per game on eight shots from distance, and while this is just the Storm’s third road stop of the season, they do face an Aces team that doesn’t get its heels above the 3-point line.

Las Vegas actually sits below Seattle in terms of defending the 3-pointer, allowing foes to shoot a league-high 39% from distance while making an average of 8.1 of those long-range looks.

Loyd has gone cold the past two games while nursing a foot injury, shooting just 2-for-11 from distance. However, she’s knocked down three or more triples in three of the five games prior to that, and will have a green light as the Storm try to keep up with Vegas tonight.

Jewell Loyd Total 3-Pointers Made: Over 2.5 (+105 at bet365)