The Los Angeles Sparks are headed to Sin City for a showdown with the Western Conference-leading Las Vegas Aces, Saturday, July 23.
Our free WNBA picks and predictions for Sparks vs. Aces goes deep on why Las Vegas is a such a difficult matchup and why we like them to cover today’s sizable spread.
Sparks vs Aces odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Las Vegas opened at between -9 and -9.5 favorites at most books. The total has seen a slight rise from 173 to 173.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Sparks vs Aces predictions
Predictions made on 7/23/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sparks vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Spectrum Sportsnet, MYLVTV
Sparks vs Aces betting preview
Key injuries
Sparks: Kristi Toliver (Questionable).
Aces: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Sparks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Aces.
Sparks vs Aces picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Las Vegas Aces are 4-1 in their last five games and sit atop the Western Conference standings at 19-8. The Sparks meanwhile are coming off back-to-back wins against the Dream and the Fever but have struggled against the true contenders of the WNBA in this latest stretch. Los Angeles recently suffered double-digit losses to the Sky and the Mystics and a 106-69 drubbing by the Storm. They’re also just 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Whoever you blame for the Sparks’ struggles, it can’t be Nneka Ogwumike, who is playing a tier above the rest of the roster. She’s coming off two outstanding games against the Fever and the Dream, totaling 55 points on an absurd 21-31 from the field. She’s going to face stiff opposition from the Aces however, because, talent aside, this matchup still strongly favors Las Vegas.
From a tactical perspective, this is basketball at its most intriguing. These teams maximize their talent and view their paths to victory in diametrically opposite ways, with the Sparks an interior menace and the Aces an increasingly perimeter-oriented offense.
Both the Sparks and Aces encourage opposing teams to beat them with the 3-ball, but the well-established difference is that only the Aces are eager to take them in return. The Sparks take fewer threes than anyone else in the WNBA, while the Aces rank third in attempts. And while the Aces can beat you from the outside, they’re not a team that is totally reliant on 3-pointers either. The Sparks will be caught between containing Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young from beyond the arc while also having to worry about A’ja Wilson bludgeoning them inside.
Conversely, the Sparks generate nearly half their points in the painted area (49.4%) the highest proportion in the league. But Las Vegas does an outstanding job protecting the rim, allowing among the fewest points in the paint in the “W”.
The Aces are also an excellent rebounding team, but they do so selectively. They almost totally concede the offensive glass (23.6%, lowest in the league), instead prioritizing transition defense. But on the defensive boards, they rank tops in the league, gifting opponents few extra possessions of their own. The Aces are ensuring valuable transition opportunities for themselves while limiting them for their opponents. That’s going to hurt a Sparks offense that can sometimes look like it’s running in mud in the halfcourt.
This line is significant, but the Aces have the talent and requisite tactical flexibility that the Sparks do not. I like Vegas to cover.
Prediction: Aces -9.0 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
These are two of the higher-paced teams in the “W”, with the Aces first overall and the Sparks coming in fourth. But while the Aces are a high-powered offense, the Sparks are lumped in with the other bottom-dwellers like the Fever and Dream with an offensive rating of just 99.4.
The Sparks thrive on second-chance points, but they’re in for tough sledding against Dearica Hamby and A’ja Wilson, who dominate the defensive glass for Las Vegas. The Sparks also usually generate a lot of points off turnovers, but the Aces have the lowest turnover rate in the league. Given the high caliber of ball handlers like Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, and Chelsea Gray I don’t expect the Sparks to be able to get those same points.
The Sparks foul a lot and concede a high number of opponent free throws, and that’s the go-to pressure point the Aces like to attack when their shots aren’t falling. In the previous game between the Aces and the Sparks, Kelsey Plum and A’ja Wilson combined for more free throws (20) than the entire Los Angeles team combined (15).
I’m fully expecting the Aces to have a solid offensive performance, but it takes two to tango on an Over this high. The Aces are just so good at taking away everything that L.A. likes to do. I like the Under.
Prediction: Under 173.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
While I’m backing the Under overall, that’s largely because I don’t think the Sparks will keep pace with the Aces scoring avalanche.
In the last game between these two teams back on June 27, the Aces pulled out a narrow six-point win in Los Angeles. They did so almost entirely on the backs of A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum, who scored 25 and 29 points respectively.
The old adage goes that role players play better at home. That might not always be true, but shooting efficiency does often improve at home with more rest, and just glancing at the box score from that game seems to prove it. Las Vegas shot below 30% from three and had to rely on their star power to carry nearly the entire scoring load, while Los Angeles had a much more distributed attack.
With the Aces set to benefit from home court advantage for the rematch, we should see a significant uptick in their scoring over their previous game, which is why I like their Over as the best bet on the board.
Pick: Aces Over 91.5 (-105 at Betway)
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