The Phoenix Mercury will look to build on an impressive season debut as they host the Los Angeles Sparks at PHX Arena on Wednesday night.
Both teams have begun the year playing below the total, which is why I’m taking the Under in my Sparks vs. Mercury predictions for tonight.
Read on as I break down tonight matchup in my free WNBA picks for Wednesday, May 21.
Sparks vs Mercury predictions
My Sparks vs Mercury best bet: Under 161.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
This early in the season, it can be hard to pick up on trends, as the small sample size we have is often misleading. But when it comes to the Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury, I think there’s a clear lean to the Under, with both data and some practical reasoning behind that thought.
First, there’s the fact that neither of these teams has managed to hit the Over yet this year. The Sparks have already played twice this year, and their offense hasn’t looked particularly impressive in either game. In raw numbers, the 84-point performance against the Golden State Valkyries looked strong – especially with Kelsey Plum putting up 37 points – but that came against an expansion team making its league debut.
The story was different against the Minnesota Lynx, who held the Sparks to 75 points on 40% shooting from the field. The biggest problem for the Sparks isn’t finding star players who can score, but rather an overall lack of depth on the roster, especially with Cameron Brink out as she continues to recover from a torn ACL. Los Angeles played just seven players, with only three scoring in double figures.
Phoenix’s offense looked solid in its opener as well, scoring 81 points. But that result also comes with a caveat, as it came against a Seattle Storm team that is in rebuilding mode this season. Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas both looked like capable scorers in that opener, but neither has consistently put up the kinds of scoring numbers that the injured Kahleah Copper (21.1 ppg last season) has over the past four years.
Outside of Thomas and Sabally, nobody else showed much scoring punch for the Mercury, as the rest of the lineup took less than half of the shots and combined for 34 points in total. And against better competition, that’s not going to get it done, at least not consistently.
But to bring this full circle, let’s remember that even with a few great offense performances in their early games, neither of these teams has managed to hit an Over yet. That streak won’t last forever, but with a total that is similar to the numbers posted in their first games, I’m taking the Under again tonight.
Sparks vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 161.5
Mercury -5.5
Satou Sabally 20+ points
Along with my bet on the Under tonight, I’m also taking the Mercury to cover in my same-game parlay. Despite missing some key pieces, Phoenix looked excellent in their season opener, beating the Seattle Storm by 22 points, easily beating the six-point spread. Based on what we saw in that game and Los Angeles’ struggles against the Minnesota Lynx, I’m confident the Mercury can cover again.
One of the biggest contributors to that opening win was Satou Sabally, who put up a game-high 27 points on 9-for-17 shooting. While Sabally has never averaged more than 18.6 ppg for a full season, she’s taking on the primary scoring duties for Phoenix while Copper is out for the next month or more. I’m taking Sabally to pick up at least 20 points tonight on her way to leading the Mercury to a win.
Sparks vs Mercury odds
Sparks vs Mercury live odds
Sparks vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +5.5 (-102) | Phoenix -5.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +190 | Phoenix -235
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 (-115) | Under 160.5 (-105)
Sparks vs Mercury trend
The Under is a combined 3-0 in Sparks and Mercury games this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Mercury.
How to watch Sparks vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Arizona's Family Sports, Spectrum SportNet |
Sparks vs Mercury latest injuries
Sparks: Rae Burrell (leg) and Cameron Brink (knee) ruled out.
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (knee) and Natasha Mack (back) ruled out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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