It’s a battle of the league’s Top 2 records as the Connecticut Sun visit the top-seeded New York Liberty on Saturday night.
The Liberty have dominated this matchup and are seeking their ninth straight win in this head-to-head. It's no surprise they’re comfortable seven-point favorites in the WNBA odds, and my Sun vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks don't see Connecticut closing the gap on August 24.
Sun vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Liberty -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
After getting upset in their first game back from the Olympic break, the Connecticut Sun have straightened out with a pair of wins, though they’ve been single-digit victories over L.A. and Chicago — not exactly the cream of the crop. Still, they’re just 3.5 games back of the New York Liberty for first in the league standings and boast the top scoring defense in the WNBA, holding teams to 73.5 points per game.
While all three matchups with the Liberty have been close, Connecticut has lost all of them and is in danger of getting swept in the regular-season series in two straight seasons.
This year, it’s been their offense that’s been a letdown. The Sun have scored 75 points or less in all three clashes while allowing the Liberty to crack the 80-point plateau two times.
New York has been next-level this season, sitting at 25-4 and currently riding an eight-game winning streak. The Liberty have just two losses in their last 23 games.
They’re able to adapt to any style of play and are arguably the most complete team in the W, as they are the only franchise that ranks Top 3 in both scoring and points allowed. New York ranks second in the WNBA in field goal shooting, hitting at a 45.1% clip, and they’ve been the better offensive side in all three games thanks to a defense that’s baffled the Sun.
Connecticut has shot 42.4% or lower in every game in this regular-season series, while the Liberty have shot under 49% in this matchup once.
They may be a little shorthanded in this one, though, as star guard Sabrina Ionescu is nursing a neck injury and is considered a game-time decision. She’s the leading scorer on the team and has topped the scoring charts for New York in every matchup against the Sun this season.
If she’s out or playing compromised, that’s got to work in Connecticut’s favor. However, it’s hard to shake the fact that New York owns the best home record in the W at 14-1, with a +10.5 point differential at Barclays this season, and Connecticut will be playing the second night of a back-to-back.
Sun vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty -7.5
Breanna Stewart Over 18.5 points
Jonquel Jones Under 9.5 rebounds
Breanna Stewart hasn’t been shooting it that well for the Liberty out of the extended break, connecting on just 40.8% through four games. However, the Liberty’s second-leading scorer has crossed her 18.5-point scoring line in three of the last four games.
Stewart should still be in that points range because of volume, ranking seventh in the league in field goal attempts per game while averaging 15 per contest. That number has spiked to 17.8 attempts during this latest four-game stretch along with 7.5 free throw attempts. If she meets those targets again Saturday, this should be a comfortable cover.
Stewart’s frontcourt mate Jonquel Jones is a Top 5 rebounder in the league, pulling down an average of 9.4 rebounds per contest. She’s been especially hot on the glass of late, averaging 14 boards per game in her last three.
However, Jones has hit the Over at this figure just once in three head-to-head meetings with Connecticut this season, and the Sun hold opponents to the fewest rebounds per game in the league.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Liberty odds
Sun vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut +7.5 (-110) | New York -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Connecticut +270 | New York -355
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)
Sun vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- Connecticut has the second-most road wins (nine) in the WNBA this season.
- New York is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight games vs the Sun.
- The Under has cashed in three straight games between Connecticut and New York.
Sun vs Liberty trend
Connecticut has hit the Over in four of its last six games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Liberty.
Sun vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-24-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSB, WWOR |
Sun vs Liberty latest injuries
Sun: Tiffany Mitchell G (game-time decision).
Liberty: Betnijah Laney-Hamilton F (questionable), Sabrina Ioenscu G (game-time decision).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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