The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun swept their respective first-round playoff matchups against the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever, and the Lynx and Sun meet in the semis with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line.
The regular-season series between these two teams was a dogfight, and my Sun vs. Lynx predictions expect the Sun to keep it close. Read my WNBA picks to see why you should take Connecticut and the points in Sunday’s Game 1.
Sun vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Sun +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
These are two of the best teams in the Association, and the three regular-season matchups between them did not disappoint. All three were decided by five or fewer points, and two of them were decided by two or fewer.
The road team covered in all three 2024 matchups and in the final two games of the 2023 Sun-Lynx first-round series. Connecticut’s 19-22-1 ATS record is far less impressive than Minnesota’s 26-15-1 mark, but recent trends have me leaning heavily on Connecticut to cover tonight.
The Sun covered and pushed in its first-round series sweep of the Fever, and Connecticut clearly looked like the best team in that series against a red-hot Indiana team. Minnesota had its hands full with Phoenix in its series sweep. The Lynx’s dominant defense was taken to task, surrendering 95 and 88 points, and Minnesota gave up a 23-point lead in a hard-fought Game 1.
The Sun play a physical brand of defense that allowed the fewest points per game to opponents this season. Connecticut should head into this matchup with its head held high, while Minnesota has some clear concerns. The Lynx depended on scoring totals of 38 and 42 from Napheesa Collier to beat Phoenix, and without her historic scoring, that series could have certainly gone to three games. I’ll take the road team to cover for a sixth consecutive contest.
Sun vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun +4.5
Marina Mabrey Over 16.5 points
Napheesa Collier Over 24.5 points
Marina Mabrey has been on a roll, and I’m confidently taking the Over on her scoring prop tonight. She averaged 22 points in the first-round series against Indiana and scored at least 17 points in both games. Mabrey has averaged 18.9 points and 3.4 triples across her last seven, hitting the Over in five of them. Minnesota’s stellar defense was cooked by Phoenix, and the red-hot Mabrey shouldn’t be scared of this matchup.
Connecticut boasts the WNBA’s top-rated defense, and the Sun will surely do its best to contain the electric Collier in Game 1. Collier averaged a ridiculous 40 points against Phoenix and carried her team to victory. She has scored at least 25 points in three straight and hit the mark twice against the Sun in the regular season. Collier’s point total is set at 23.5, and taking the Over comes with less-than-favorable -124 odds. Even though we’re including this prop into a parlay, we can easily do better and get +104 odds by taking a single point more and bumping this line to 24.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Lynx odds
Sun vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -4.5 (-110) | Phoenix +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -205 | Connecticut +164
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Sun vs Lynx series odds
- Sun: +180
- Lynx: -220
Sun vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Sun finished the regular season 4-4 straight up and ATS before going 1-0-1 ATS in their first-round sweep of the Fever.
- The Lynx went 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS to close out the regular season before sweeping the Mercury with a 1-1 ATS mark in the first round.
- Connecticut is 3-7 to the Under across its last 10 games but 2-2 across its last four.
- Minnesota is 5-5 to the Under across its last 10, but the Lynx have hit the Over in 4 of their last 5.
Sun vs Lynx trend
Connecticut is 19-22-1 ATS this season (including the playoffs), and Minnesota is 26-15-1. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Lynx.
Sun vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Sun vs Lynx latest injuries
Sun: Tyasha Harris (questionable), Tiffany Mitchell (out).
Lynx: Cecilia Zandalasini (questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
