At home or on the road, it doesn’t really matter for the rock-solid Connecticut Sun, and they’ll look to pad their win total tonight against the slumping Los Angeles Sparks.
These teams squared off on Sunday, with the Sun cruising to a 79-67 win, and they’re big favorites for this rematch too. My Sun vs Sparks predictions dig into a clash where offense could be in short supply.
Find out more in our WNBA picks for Tuesday, September 10.
Sun vs Sparks predictions
My best bet
Under 158.5 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
The end of the season can’t come soon enough for the Los Angeles Sparks. With a league-worst 7-28 record, L.A. has looked short on answers while losing nine of its last 10 outings.
Another showdown with the Connecticut Sun won’t help matters. Defense continues to be Connecticut’s calling card, and we saw the Sparks’ limitations in this matchup over the weekend.
I’m jumping on the Under, with the prospect of a repeat of the rockfight we saw two days ago, and trusting a Connecticut team that’s allowing the fewest points per game in the league this season (74.1). This line is a few points lower than Sunday’s total, but I’m still buying into the defenses being on top.
The Sparks only posted 67 points in their latest matchup despite shooting 50% from downtown, and they’re short on scoring options beyond Dearica Hamby and Rickea Jackson. That explains why L.A. has been the WNBA’s second least potent offense in 2024.
It’s not as if the Sun are an offensive juggernaut either. They’re capable of efficient nights but average 79.9 ppg, eighth in the league. They’ve been held below 70 points twice already this month, and Stephanie White’s team still seems to be finding its way after the midseason trade for Marina Mabrey.
The trends love the Under too. It’s 12-3 in Connecticut’s last 15 matchups against Western Conference opponents, and 5-1 in L.A.’s past six games against teams with a winning record. There’s every reason to expect more of the same in this spot.
Sun vs Sparks same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 158.5
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 rebounds
Sun -11.5
A low-scoring game is a recipe for big rebounding numbers, and I’m looking at Alyssa Thomas for a monster haul on the glass. Thomas is coming off back-to-back games with 10 rebounds, including a triple-double against the Sparks on Sunday, and she’ll have every opportunity to reach that mark again here.
The Sparks shot 41% from the field against the Sun at the weekend, and Thomas is the likeliest Connecticut player to benefit on the boards if L.A. comes out cold again.
I’m also laying the points to complete my SGP. Despite some erratic recent form, the Sun have owned this matchup, winning the past 10 meetings between these teams and covering the spread in eight of those contests.
Even with a double-digit spread, this is going to be an uphill battle for L.A. As long as Connecticut doesn’t get complacent, I’m predicting a comfortable road win, and the Sun should be locked in, with the race for the No. 2 seed set to go right to the wire.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Sparks odds
Sun vs Sparks live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Sparks WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Sparks opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut -10.5 (-115) | Los Angeles +10.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Connecticut -550 | Los Angeles +400
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 (-110) | Under 158.5 (-110)
Sun vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Sun have an impressive 12-5 road record and they’ve already beaten the Sparks three times this year.
- September is off to a rough start for L.A., who drag a four-game losing streak into this game. The Sparks are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests against the East.
- Though the Sun are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win, they covered an 11-point spread against L.A. over the weekend.
- The Under has cashed in Connecticut’s last four games on one day’s rest.
Sun vs Sparks trend
The Under is 13-3 in the teams’ last 16 matchups in L.A. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Sparks.
Sun vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSB, SPECSN |
Sun vs Sparks latest injuries
Sun: No injuries to report.
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Julie Allemand G (Out), Cameron Brink F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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