XFL Championship Game Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Nether Defense Will Give an Inch

The third iteration of the XFL draws to a close as the Arlington Renegades square off with the D.C. Defenders for all the glory — and a shot at some extra cash to boot.

These teams have arrived in the finale in vastly different ways. Bob Stoops’ Renegades went from preseason favorites, to midseason disappointments, back to late-season heroes in order to make a surprising appearance. Talk about a rollercoaster season.

Meanwhile, Reggie Barlow’s Defenders dominated throughout the season to the tune of a 9-1 record, and then put a 16-point pasting on the Seattle Sea Dragons in the North Division Championship to earn a nomination for the championship game. 

Check out our XFL picks for the Renegades vs. Defenders on May 13.

Arlington Renegades vs D.C. Defenders

Saturday, May 13, 8 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 11.

XFL Championship Game predictions

It may come as a surprise to some, but the D.C. Defenders have been a dominant squad in the XFL in 2023. I don’t find it to be the least bit surprising that this team has found success considering they are well-run under head coach Reggie Barlow, offensive coordinator Fred Kaiss, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. 

I noted in my preseason XFL betting preview for Covers that the Defenders were being slept on going into the season and that their clear identity should give them an advantage, which is why I recommended them at +650 to win the XFL Championship in the futures market.

The other futures bet I placed in the preseason and recommended was Arlington at +430, but the Renegades’ season has gone far differently than I anticipated. They snuck into the playoffs in the final week of the regular season despite having a losing record (4-6). Alas, here they are. 

The offense was stuck in mud for most of the season, mustering the second-least points in the league with just 172 all season. Things changed on March 28 when Stoops and company acquired quarterback Luis Perez from the Vegas Vipers. He helped jumpstart a dormant offense and was critical in a 26-11 upset win over the Houston Roughnecks in the South Division Championship, going 19-for-27 passing with 289 yards and three touchdowns. 

With that context in mind, let’s focus on the game at hand. Looking at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Defenders are a sizable -6.5 favorite while the total is set at 48. PFF doesn’t see as big of a gulf separating these two teams, grading D.C. as the slightly better team overall (78.1) compared to Arlington (75.7) — good for third and fourth, respectively. 

D.C. is led by its offense, scoring a league-high 335 points. The unit had four players named to the 2023 All-XFL team: QB Jordan Ta’amu (league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt), RB Abram Smith (league-high 781 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns), WR Lucky Jackson (tied for the league-high with 10 receptions of 20+ yards), and guard Liam Fornadel. 

Arlington, meanwhile, did not have a single player named to the first-team offense while tying D.C. with one player named to the first-team defense — defensive lineman Davonte Lambert. I’d chalk that up as an oversight on the voting committee considering the Renegades allowed the second-fewest points per game (19.4) in the XFL and ranked second in PFF’s team defensive grade (81.2). 

We saw these teams meet once in Week 9 when Perez was under center for Arlington. The Defenders squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead but managed to remain victorious by a 28-26 final score. What shouldn’t be lost is that D.C. had already clinched a playoff berth and was coasting late in the game with a backup QB under center, whereas the Renegades were battling hard for their playoff lives. 

Arlington’s defense is its calling card, and its league-best rush defense (84.2 grade per PFF) will come in handy here with the mighty Abram Smith. The Defenders mustered just 50 yards on 20 carries in the first matchup and Smith had 2.7 ypg. 

D.C.’s defense isn’t elite, but it does have talent. Safeties Santos Ramirez and D.J. Swearinger could receive NFL interest, while Davin Bellamy and Francis Bernard will be needed up front in this matchup. The good news is the Defenders face a woeful Renegades offense that scored over half their points off turnovers this season. 

I envision this game playing Under the total given Arlington’s extreme profile that includes a rock-solid defense and a subpar offense.

Pick: Under 48 (-105 at FanDuel)

Renegades vs Defenders spread analysis

If you’re playing D.C., you likely will point out that the Defenders have cruised right past their competition this season while posting a +58 regular-season point differential. They belong in the championship game and that much is obvious to even the most casual of observers. 

Arlington, meanwhile, posted a -48 regular-season point differential while playing to a losing record and limped into the playoffs at the last second. One might argue that one upset over the Roughnecks is an outlier in the data rather than a portent of things to come. 

I can see both sides personally, as Arlington has been the inferior side for much of the season. That being said, the Renegades' 9-1 record makes it look like an unbeatable opponent, but a lot of that is due to there simply being a small sample size of data to work with over a short season. The Defenders graded out as just the third-best team in the league per PFF — narrowly in front of the Renegades. 

A lot of the handicap also goes into how much stock you put into the improvement that Luis Perez has made in this offense. He’s completed 66.5% of his passes this season while averaging a productive 7.3 yards per attempt, so he’s a crucial upgrade for a Renegades' offense that had absolutely nothing going for it early in the season. The offense still isn’t great, but it is finally functional, and that paired with the much-better defense makes me side slightly with the underdog. 

Renegades vs Defenders total analysis

As mentioned earlier, I’m on the Under in this matchup with the total being set at 48. 

Perez makes this Renegades offense better, but I would still be surprised to see them light up the scoreboard at the Alamodome. On the year, Arlington ranks second-last in passing yards while tossing five touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions. The ground game hasn’t been much better, checking in at second-last in rushing ypg while mustering a league-worst 3.3 ypc. 

Under bettors like me are hoping that D.C.’s defense shows up for the big game. Ironically enough for a team called the Defenders, they actually have been a liability on that side of the ball — ranking sixth in PFF’s team defense grade (67.4). 

Both passing attacks found success in the first matchup, as Perez threw for 335 yards on 8.2 yards per attempt while Ta’amu and backup D’Eriq King combined for 264 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt. 

Still, both teams rank in the bottom half of passing yards per game on the season and therefore I think a repeat performance would be very surprising.

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