XFL Week 10 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Offenses Show Out in Seattle

The final weekend of the XFL regular season has arrived.

There will be four games on the schedule as always, although a few of these carry more weight than usual with two playoff spots still up for grabs.

The D.C. Defenders have already locked down home-field advantage in the North Division, while the Houston Roughnecks have done the same in the South Division. It’s to be determined who both teams will face, however, as it all boils down to what occurs in the final week of the regular season. 

Check out our XFL picks and predictions for Week 10 below.

XFL picks for Week 10

• St. Louis -9
• San Antonio +3
• HOU-ARL Under 42
• VEG-SEA Over 47

Picks made on 4/20/2023 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Week 10 XFL odds and predictions

Orlando Guardians vs St. Louis Battlehawks

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 20.

The first game of the weekend features some playoff intrigue — for one team, at least. The St. Louis Battlehawks (6-3) are still alive in the North Division race, although the road got a little murkier after last week’s 30-12 demolition at the hands of the Seattle Sea Dragons, whom the Battlehawks happen to be warring against for a playoff bid. 

The Orlando Guardians (1-8) have been the league’s worst team according to both the standings and the underlying numbers. They rank dead last in Pro Football Focus’s overall team grade (58.1) and will simply be looking to play spoiler at this point — something they failed to do last week in San Antonio. 

This will be the first time this season these two teams have met, so we don’t have a prior matchup to base this handicap on — it’ll all be projection. The Battlehawks should be highly motivated considering a playoff spot is still on the line. A win on Saturday should put them in the playoffs, and they’ll have every chance to grab that victory at home in front of arguably the league’s best crowd. It’s difficult to envision Orlando being highly motivated in their second straight road game to conclude what’s been a miserable campaign. 

One thing Orlando at least had going for it this season was an impressive passing offense led by Quinten Dormady. That’s now been put into doubt after a miserable Week 9 performance in which Dormady completed nine of 17 pass attempts for just 47 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) while tossing one touchdown and one interception. Deondre Francois also saw playing time, although his forecast isn’t any clearer considering he’s completed just 45.5% of his 22 pass attempts this season for a measly 2.1 yards per attempt. 

I’ll lay the points with the home team battling for a playoff spot and fade the worst team in the XFL. 

Pick: St. Louis -9 (-110 at DraftKings)

DC Defenders vs San Antonio Brahmas

Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 20.

This game has playoff implications for only one of the featured teams — but oddly enough, it’s not the one you’d think by looking at the records. 

Despite having a bland record of 3-6, the San Antonio Brahmas are technically still alive in the playoff hunt — crazy, right? A Brahmas win on Saturday would mean that the Arlington Renegades (4-5) would be in a “win or go home” situation the next day against the Houston Roughnecks. 

Meanwhile, this game carries no weight for the D.C. Defenders (8-1), who — with the league’s best record — have already clinched home-field advantage in the North Division Championship. Expect to see more of backup quarterback D’Eriq King, who saw extended playing time a week ago in a 28-26 win over Arlington. 

San Antonio will have the motivational edge in this matchup as well as the home-field advantage. Motivation was a big reason why I took the points with Arlington last week against D.C., and sure enough, the Defenders took their foot off the gas after grabbing a 26-9 lead. The game ended up going to overtime, and the Defenders won by just two points.

I’ll go right back to the well here with the Brahmas. D.C. will simply look to get out of this game healthy enough for the playoffs — that’s the only goal. San Antonio is fighting for its life. 

The Brahmas have looked better since quarterback Jack Coan returned to the lineup, outgaining each of their last two opponents on a per play basis. The strength of the defense resides in a rushing defense that grades out as the second-best in the league per PFF with an 81.4 grade. That should help them here against a Defenders offense that leads the league in rushing and has 454 more yards than the next-closest team. 

Pick: San Antonio +3 (-110 at DraftKings)

Houston Roughnecks vs Arlington Renegades

Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 20.

Yet another game in which there are playoff implications for only one of the teams in this matchup, and it’s not the one most would suspect by glancing at the standings. 

The Roughnecks (6-3) have already clinched home-field advantage in the South Division Championship and are simply waiting to see who their opponent will be — San Antonio or Arlington. 

The Renegades (4-5) will look to force a rematch in a playoff bid that hasn’t exactly inspired confidence thus far. Bob Stoops’ squad has lost three of its last four games and is limping toward the finish line. 

I have little confidence in either side. Arlington has been very uninspiring, while Houston has little motivation to put forth its best effort. I’ll look toward the total instead and play the Under, which is currently listed at 42. 

I expect a vanilla game plan from Houston as the coaching staff won’t look to tip its hand heading into a potential rematch between these two teams in the playoffs. 

Arlington, meanwhile, has had trouble generating offense even on its best of days. The Renegades rank dead last in points scored (137) this season. While new quarterback Luis Perez looked fantastic a week ago, he now faces a tough challenge against a tough Roughnecks defense coached by Wade Phillips that ranks first in PFF’s defensive grade (87.2) and is led by a fearsome pass rush. 

These two teams combined for 37 points in the first matchup back in Week 2. Arlington mustered a grotesque 2.4 yards per play on the day. Houston was slightly better with 4.2 yards per play, but still gained just 12 first downs — two more than Arlington (10). I’ll bet on another sluggish game between these two defensive-minded teams. 

Pick: Under 42 (-110 at DraftKings)

Vegas Vipers vs Seattle Sea Dragons

Sunday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 20.

The Seattle Sea Dragons (6-3) need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and will look to do so at home against the Vegas Vipers (2-7). 

The second playoff spot in the North comes down to Seattle and St. Louis. There’s a chance that one of those squads finishes the season 7-3 and still gets left out of the playoff picture. A win for both squads, who are both heavily favored in Week 10, would put things into a murky tie-breaker situation in which it appears that Seattle has the clear upper hand after a strong 30-12 victory over the Battlehawks in Week 9. 

So, things are looking pretty good for Seattle, and it’ll know what it has to do a day ahead of time considering St. Louis plays on Saturday. 

I’ll be taking the Over in this game. I love what I saw from Seattle’s offense a week ago when the Sea Dragons scored 30 points on the road against a tough opponent in a raucous environment. Quarterback Ben DiNucci leads the league in passing yards (2,332) by a country mile, outpacing second-place A.J. McCarron by over 600 yards. 

DiNucci and company should be able to do damage against a Vegas defense that has surrendered the second-most points (224) in the league. They grade out as the second-worst defense according to PFF’s defensive grade (64.3), which is a concern against a June Jones’ offense. 

On the other side of things, Vegas’ offense has looked pretty good since Jalan McClendon took over at quarterback a few weeks ago. He’s averaging a healthy 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and may be the best rushing threat at the position in the league, which keeps defenses honest and makes them hard to stop. 

These two teams met back in Week 3 and combined for 56 points in a 30-26 Seattle victory. I’ll be betting on another high-scoring game between these two teams that have had impressive quarterback play recently.

Pick: Over 47 (-110 at bet365)

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