They say good things come in threes. If that’s true, the third week of the third iteration of the XFL promises to be a good one.
Things get started on Saturday with a single game between two winless teams as the Sea Dragons face the Vipers in Vegas.
Sunday’s action gets started with a battle of unbeatens between the comeback king Battlehawks and the aptly-named Defenders. The Guardians then look for their first win as they head to Arlington to face the Renegades. Lastly, the Roughnecks look to stay perfect in the nightcap as they host the Brahmas in Houston.
Check out our XFL betting picks for Week 3 below.
XFL picks for Week 3
- Sea Dragons -3 (-110)
- Battlehawks-Defenders Under 37 (-110)
- Guardians +8.5 (-110)
- Roughnecks -4 (-110)
Picks made on 3/03/2023 at 8:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 3 XFL odds and predictions
Seattle Dragons vs Vegas Vipers
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+/FX
| Seattle Dragons | Vegas Vipers | |
|---|---|---|
| -3 (-115) | Spread | +3 (-105) |
| -170 | Moneyline | +145 |
| Over 38 (-115) | Total | Under 38 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 3.
The first game of the weekend features a battle between two winless teams searching for a much-needed bright spot.
Seattle (0-2) is tied with Vegas (0-2) in the North Division cellar after the first two weeks. The Sea Dragons have had some tough luck thus far. First, they fell 22-18 to the Defenders in Week 1 despite winning the yardage battle 331-177. Most recently, they held a sizable first-half lead over the Battlehawks before succumbing to yet another A.J. McCarron comeback.
The offense does seem to be working, as it mustered 6.0 yards per play against a tough Battlehawks defense. Ben DiNucci leads the league in passing yards (478) while completing 65.1% of his passes. Offensive coordinator June Jones sure likes to throw the ball, and it looks like he has the personnel to do so. Jahcour Pearson has been the league’s most productive receiver with 16 receptions for 173 yards and a touchdown.
Vegas has faltered out of the gates. First-time head coach Rod Woodson’s team lacks offensive gusto, ranking last in rushing yards (115) and fifth (out of eight) in passing yards (323) after two weeks. The switch to Brett Hundley at quarterback didn’t seem to do the trick a week ago.
I’ve been fooled by Seattle before, but I still believe it’s the better team in this matchup and will take the Sea Dragons to cover this spread. They have the much better offense through two weeks and at least have a clear identity, whereas Vegas has yet to display anything that inspires confidence.
Pick: Sea Dragons -3 (-110 at bet365)
St. Louis Battlehawks vs D.C. Defenders
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+/FX
| St. Louis Battlehawks | D.C. Defenders | |
|---|---|---|
| +3 (-115) | Spread | -3 (-105) |
| +130 | Moneyline | -150 |
| Over 37 (-110) | Total | Under 37 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 3.
It’s a battle of unbeatens in D.C. as the Battlehawks (2-0) head to Audi Field to face the hometown Defenders (2-0).
Both teams have arrived at their respective spotless records in roundabout fashion. The Battlehawks have needed two comebacks in as many weeks, pulling off a last-second miracle against the Brahmas in Week 1 (18-15) and then digging out of an early hole to defeat the Sea Dragons on a last-second field goal in Week 2 (20-18).
St. Louis has had some issues along the offensive line, surrendering nine sacks in the first half of games alone. That could be a problem here against an aggressive and effective Gregg Williams defense.
D.C. doesn’t play the prettiest brand of football, but it hasn’t mattered — yet. The Defenders rank last in passing yards (183) as quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has yet to find a rhythm with his wideouts while completing just 45% of his passes. The rushing attack has been effective, leading the league with 313 yards — 114 more yards than the next-closest team.
I have been content to ride the Under in D.C. games, as the defensive front seven is fantastic while the offense struggles to move the ball through the air but consistently keeps the clock moving on the ground. I see little reason to get off the wagon now.
Pick: Under 37 (-110 at DraftKings)
Orlando Guardians vs Arlington Renegades
Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+/FX
| Orlando Guardians | Arlington Renegades | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.5 (-115) | Spread | -8.5 (-105) |
| +340 | Moneyline | -425 |
| Over 38 (-110) | Total | Under 38 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 3.
The Guardians (0-2) have been the league’s worst team this season. Terrell Buckley’s squad committed 13 penalties in last week’s unsuccessful home opener. Quenten Dormady was dismissed from the team, leaving just Paxton Lynch (5.2 yards per attempt) and Deondre Francois (6/13 passing with one touchdown and one interception) in the quarterback room.
Orlando was bludgeoned 33-12 by the Roughnecks in the opener and then suffered a nearly identical beatdown (30-12) in Week 2 to the Brahmas. This team has not been close to achieving any level of success.
There’s a new starting quarterback in Arlington as Bob Stoops has tabbed Kyle Sloter the signal-caller for Week 3. One can see why Stoops opted to make the change, as Arlington ranks second-to-last in passing yards (245) while tossing as many interceptions as touchdowns (two). It doesn’t help that the rushing attack also ranks second-to-last, mustering just 2.5 yards per rush while failing to find the endzone on the ground.
Arlington has been a disappointing team to me; its 1-1 record doesn’t fully illustrate what was supposed to be one of the league’s best teams and has come out of the gates flat. The Renegades won the opener despite not scoring an offensive touchdown, and then managed just 2.4 yards per play in a 23-14 loss to Houston in Week 2. Arlington failed to capitalize on the three turnovers it faced. With a real chance to pull off that upset, the team instead self-destructed and showed few signs of competence.
This point spread is too much for me to lay regardless of how poorly the Guardians have played. Cut down on some of the mistakes this week and we could see a much closer game against an Arlington team failing to find any consistency thus far.
Pick: Guardians +8.5 (-110 at bet365)
San Antonio Brahmas vs Houston Roughnecks
Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
| San Antonio Brahmas | Houston Roughnecks | |
|---|---|---|
| +4 (-110) | Spread | -4 (-110) |
| +160 | Moneyline | -190 |
| Over 36.5 (-105) | Total | Under 36.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 3.
The Roughnecks (2-0) have been the league’s best teams through two weeks and should be unanimous atop anyone’s XFL power rankings.
Offensive coordinator A.J. Smith has cooked up a pass-heavy attack that isn’t afraid the take chances. With 56 points through two weeks, this is the XFL’s top-scoring team. Defensively, they lead the league in sacks, tackle for loss, and interceptions while ranking second in both points allowed and yards allowed per game.
The Brahmas (1-1) share a similarity with Houston in that they also beat up on a poor Orlando squad to boost both their record and underlying statistics. While the 30-12 final score made that one look like a blowout, I’ll point out that the Bahamas mustered just 210 total yards against the league's worst team.
Jack Coan has been an effective quarterback while the defense appears to be about league-average.
The Roughnecks are the superior side in my opinion. We have two data points on this team so far, with the first one being a flawless blowout victory, and the second one seeing them nearly double up the Renegades on total yards (242-125) despite turning the ball over three times.
Houston appears to be the best team in the league right now, while San Antonio is around league average. If the Roughnecks really are the XFL’s best squad in 2023, this is a game that they should win by more than four points.
Pick: Roughnecks -4 (-110 at DraftKings)
