Don’t look now, but the XFL product is looking better and better each passing week after we had two high-scoring shootouts in Week 3. So, what do we get for an encore?
Well, Week 4 features a pair of rematches starting with what we now know is a worst vs. first matchup when the Orlando Guardians host the Houston Roughnecks on Saturday.
The week closes on Sunday with the DC Defenders taking on the Vegas Vipers for the second this season, but the Vipers could be a very different team this time around with new starting quarterback Brett Hundley under center.
Those rematches sandwich the Seattle Sea Dragons taking on the San Antonio Brahmas and the Arlington Renegades visiting the St. Louis Battlehawks in their home opener.
Check out my XFL betting picks for Week 4 below.
XFL picks for Week 4
Picks made on 3/9/2023 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 4 XFL odds and predictions
Houston Roughnecks vs Orlando Guardians
Saturday, 7:00 pm ET, FX/ESPN
| Houston Roughnecks | Orlando Guardians | |
|---|---|---|
| -9 | Spread | +9 |
| -365 | Moneyline | +300 |
| Over 37.5 | Total | Under 37.5 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 9.
If it wasn’t clear before, it certainly is now. The Houston Roughnecks are the class of the XFL. Led by head coach Wade Phillips and quarterback Brandon Silvers, the Roughnecks are off to a 3-0 start with an XFL-best +39 point differential heading into this week’s rematch with the Orlando Guardians.
Houston crushed the Guardians 33-12 back in Week 1 and is now coming off a 22-13 win over the San Antonio Brahmas, where Silvers went 24-for-35 for 278 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Like, real quarterback numbers.
Phillips’ defense left its mark as well, stymying San Antonio QB Jack Coan by limiting him to just 8-for-20 passing for 64 yards in the win. This is no surprise as the Roughnecks are allowing just 3.6 yards per play this season.
Meanwhile, the Guardians sit at 0-3 with an XFL-worst -40-point differential. Orlando did give its fans some hope last week, falling by just a point to the Arlington Renegades. Unfortunately, it scored just nine itself.
Paxton Lynch is coming off arguably his best game in the XFL. However, he was still sacked four times last week and was pulled from the game the last time he faced this Roughnecks defense. The Guardians haven’t scored more than 12 points in a game this season, and I’d be shocked if that changed this week.
Keep an eye on the status of do-it-all running back Max Borghi who has been limited in practice this week, but I’m laying the points here.
Pick: Roughnecks -9 (-110 at DraftKings)
San Antonio Brahmas vs Seattle Sea Dragons
Saturday, 10:00 pm ET, FX/ESPN+
| San Antonio Brahmas | Seattle Sea Dragons | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 | Spread | -4.5 |
| +175 | Moneyline | -205 |
| Over 40.5 | Total | Under 40.5 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 9.
For once, the Seattle Sea Dragons were on the right side of a fourth-quarter comeback. Seattle trailed the Vegas Vipers (who looked like a different with Brent Hundley at quarterback) 20-9 midway through the second half and scored three times in the fourth quarter to pull out a 30-26 victory.
Even though it was the Sea Dragons’ first win of the season, with this offense, they could end up as the top team in the XFL’s North Division. Seattle offensive coordinator June Jones has this unit firing on all cylinders.
Quarterback Ben DiNucci leads the XFL in passing with 855 yards, completing 69.2% of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns and three picks. Once again, real quarterback numbers.
DiNucci has maybe the best weapon to throw to in the league, none other than Josh Gordon. The former NFL standout has 13 receptions for 225 yards and three scores this season, and they could have another big day against the San Antonio Brahmas.
The Brahmas (1-2) have generally been competitive this season but are coming off a tough game against the Roughnecks. In their two matchups against solid quarterbacks (AJ McCarron, Brandon Silvers) they have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt and five touchdowns with just one pick.
Also, outside of last week’s game against Houston, Jack Coan has been solid under center for San Antonio. Coan is known for his accuracy more than his arm, but don’t be surprised if he tries to push the ball down the field vs. a Sea Dragons defense that allows a whopping 11.7 yards per attempt this season.
The total for this matchup is at 40.5 and I don’t think it’s high enough.
Pick: Over 40.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Arlington Renegades vs St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday, 4:00 pm ET, ESPN2
| Arlington Renegades | St. Louis Battlehawks | |
|---|---|---|
| +4 | Spread | -4 |
| +150 | Moneyline | -175 |
| Over 36.5 | Total | Under 36.5 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 9.
The Arlington Renegades were one of the betting favorites to win the XFL title before the season began. But despite a 2-1 start, the Renegades don’t feel like a title contender at the moment and could be walking into a buzzsaw when they visit the St. Louis BattleHawks in their home opener Sunday.
After uneven play at quarterback through the first two weeks where it went 1-1, Arlington head coach Bob Stoops made the switch from Drew Plitt to Kyle Sloter. And the move kind of worked. Sloter led the Renegades to a win last week, but it was a 10-9 nail bitter against the worst team in the league — the Guardians. Sloter went 18-for-23 but for just 124 yards.
It doesn’t help Arlington gets no support from the running game, which averages a league-worst 2.5 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the BattleHawks are coming off their first loss of the season in what might have been the XFL game of the year to this point, as St. Louis fell 34-28 to the DC Defenders. AJ McCarron had an up-and-down performance, throwing for 262 yards and four touchdowns but also having two picks and a fumble.
If he can limit the turnovers he should have enough success against a Renegades' defense that has had the benefit of playing two of the worst teams in the XFL.
An Arlington team that is putting up just 15.3 points per game will have trouble keeping up in this spot. Plus, this will be the first time it has to leave the state of Texas to play football in front of what should be a pretty raucous crowd in St. Louis. Back the BattleHawks.
Pick: BattleHawks -4 (-110 at DraftKings)
Vegas Vipers vs D.C. Defenders
Sunday, 7:00 pm ET, ESPN2
| Vegas Vipers | D.C. Defenders | |
|---|---|---|
| +6 | Spread | -6 |
| +205 | Moneyline | -245 |
| Over 42 | Total | Under 42 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 9.
You might think a rematch between the 0-3 Vegas Vipers and the 3-0 DC Defenders might be a one-sided affair — particularly when the DC Beer Snake is involved — but not so fast.
Yes, the Vipers are 0-3 for the season, but last week they made a switch at quarterback, benching spring football veteran Luis Perez in favor of former NFL backup Brett Hundley and the results were immediate.
Hundley tossed bombs all night in last week’s game against Seattle, throwing for 225 yards and two scores with no interceptions. He also rushed for 66 yards and another score. Vegas ultimately lost the game but there’s no doubt about Hundley’s impact as the Vipers scored a season-high 26 points.
DC, on the other hand, is an interesting team. Yes, the Defenders are 3-0, but they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Seattle. They had a weather assist in the first win against the Vipers, and there were some questionable calls in their back-and-forth shootout win against St. Louis last week.
More importantly, there is unrest at the quarterback position. Starter Jordan Ta’amu has struggled. He is completing just 48.4% of his passes and has thrown for just 391 yards and one touchdown through three games, while backup D’Eriq King looked electric when he has come in.
On top of that, a DC defense that might be a touch overrated will be missing some key pieces this week. A late-game scuffle with the BattleHawks means defensive starters, LB Francis and DT Gabe Wright were suspended and will sit this one out.
Rod Woodson’s squad needs a win and six points are too many here.
Pick: Vipers +6 (-110 at DraftKings)
