XFL Week 9 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Playoff Picture Comes Into Focus

The penultimate week of the 2023 XFL regular season gets underway with two games on tap on Saturday, and two more set for Sunday.

The playoff picture has started to gain clarity, as D.C. has clinched a spot in the North Division Championship while Houston has secured a spot in the South Division Championship.

That leaves two other openings up for grabs — one in each division. Which teams will be fighting hard to earn a spot in the postseason? Check out our XFL picks and predictions for Week 9 to find out.

XFL picks for Week 9

• Vegas +6.5
• ORL-SA Over 39
• Arlington +8.5
• SEA-STL Over 45.5

Picks made on 4/13/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Week 9 XFL odds and predictions

Vegas Vipers vs Houston Roughnecks

Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

It’s to be determined what sort of effort we see from the 5-3 Houston Roughnecks, considering Wade Phillips’ club has already clinched a spot in the playoffs. There is still something on the line to play for, as the Roughnecks can clinch home-field advantage in the South Division Championship with a win against the 2-6 Vegas Vipers and an Arlington loss to D.C.

The Roughnecks have been limping to the finish line, however. After a 4-0 start to the season, they dropped three straight games from Week 5 through Week 7 and were in danger of having that streak reach four losses in a row before pulling out a 17-15 overtime victory over San Antonio last week.

Vegas has been playing better football lately, soundly defeating San Antonio 26-12 in Week 7 and narrowly losing to St. Louis 21-17 in Week 8. Rod Woodson has found something with former Baylor Bear Jalen McClendon at quarterback, a dual threat who has provided a spark to the rushing game while keeping secondaries honest with a cannon of an arm.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Houston has been in freefall after a hot start to the season, whereas Vegas has finally found its groove and is playing its best football of the year heading into this matchup.

I’ll be taking the points with the underdog in what appears to be an inflated spread that is not indicative of both respective squads’ recent performance.

Pick: Vegas +6.5 (-105 at bet365)

Orlando Guardians vs San Antonio Brahmas

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

Speaking of teams that have started to find their groove, the Orlando Guardians (1-7) have gone from a laughing stock over the first half of the season to a pesky out over the last half of the year.

Terrell Buckley’s side didn’t pick up its first win of the season until Week 7 but did so in impressive fashion with a 37-36 win over a previously undefeated D.C. team. That showing was enough for bookmakers to establish Buckley’s squad as favorites over Arlington a week ago, although the Guardians ultimately fell 18-16.

This game doesn’t look like much on the surface as these teams have a combined 3-13 record, but there is perhaps more intrigue than first meets the eye. The 2-6 San Antonio Brahmas are technically still alive in the playoff race, although their postseason dreams will be snapped if Arlington upsets D.C. this weekend.

Hines Ward’s squad got the better of the first matchup between these teams back in Week 2 as the Brahmas boat raced the Guardians 30-12 in their most impressive showing of the year. However, a lot has changed since then. San Antonio QB Jack Coan hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass following that win, while Orlando’s offense has started to take off with the insertion of Quinten Dormady under center.

I think this is a good spot for San Antonio’s offense to look to get back in gear with a healthier Coan facing off against an Orlando team that has allowed a league-high 232 points this season — 36 more than any other ballclub!

The Guardians rank dead last in Pro Football Focus's overall team defensive grade (61.3) and can be prone to getting into shootouts now that Dormady is chucking the ball all around the yard.

Give me the Over.

Pick: Over 39 (-110 at bet365)

Arlington Renegades vs D.C. Defenders

Sunday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

The 4-4 Arlington Renegades can clinch a playoff berth with a victory, so you know Bob Stoops’ side will be fired up for this game. Reaching the postseason may be easier said than done, however, considering Week 9 features a road trip to Audi Field to face the mighty 7-1 D.C. Defenders.

Arlington’s quest for offense has been a fruitless endeavor this season and watching its games this season has been a painful experience. Mid-season addition Luis Perez debuted at QB last week and threw for 190 yards, albeit against an incompetent Orlando defense.

It’s to be determined how successful Perez will be moving forward, although my personal opinion is that he qualifies as an upgrade over what the Renegades were previously trotting out there on a weekly basis — Drew Plitt and Kyle Sloter combined for a 4:9 TD-to-INT ratio this season while averaging a measly 5.8 yards per attempt.

The bookmakers view D.C. as the much better side, establishing the Defenders as -8.5 favorites. I haven’t been shy about fading Arlington lately, but I think this is a chance to buy back at an inflated number.

D.C. has already clinched a playoff spot and I don’t see any motivation to gun for a blowout in this spot. Might as well do just enough to find the victory and move on, right?

Also, I don’t think there’s as much separating these teams as their respective records, and the betting line, might indicate. D.C.’s overall PFF team grade (75.0) is only two points above Arlington’s (73.0). The Renegades have a superb defense, ranking second in points allowed (141) and second in PFF’s overall team defensive grade (82.8).

The Renegades have one of the league’s best front sevens defensively and rank first in PFF’s rush defense grade (89.7), which could allow them to keep things close against a D.C. team that thrives by running the ball on offense.

Pick: Arlington +8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Seattle Sea Dragons vs St. Louis Battlehawks

Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13.

As has become regular in the XFL, the best is saved for last as the 5-3 Seattle Sea Dragons and St. 6-2 Louis Battlehawks battle in the game of the weekend on Sunday night. This game has huge playoff implications as the winner will likely face D.C. in the North Division Championship game, so expect a motivated effort from both sides.

Seattle QB Ben DiNucci has been a turnover machine, leading the league in both interceptions thrown (10) and fumbles lost (5). That’s hindered the output of an offense that has otherwise been effective on a down-to-down basis, ranking second in PFF’s overall offensive grade (71.5).

The offensive line has done a good job of protecting DiNucci, boasting the best pass-blocking grade (77.9), and the receiving room features the likes of Jahcour Pearson (league-high 50 receptions), Blake Jackson (38 receptions for 381 yards and two touchdowns), and Josh Gordon (379 yards, four touchdowns).

St. Louis QB A.J. McCarron is expected to return after missing last week’s game. That’s great news considering McCarron may be the league’s best player and has engineered the league’s best passing attack, ranking first in passing grade per PFF (77.4).

Both sides should be able to move the ball effectively in this matchup between two offensively-minded teams. This game has the highest total on the board but I don’t think it’s high enough and recommend the Over up until 47.5.

Pick: Over 45.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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