Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Barkley’s full-game projections vary for Super Bowl LIX. The majority of models come in below his rushing total of 113.5 yards, with some forecasts as low as 89 yards. There are, however, a couple predicting 120-plus. My number comes out to 103 yards. Even factoring Barkley’s average 1Q output against his current full-game rushing total for SBLIX, you get a projection just north of 22 yards in the first quarter. When plugging in my projection, that 1Q tally drops to around 20.5 yards. The puffed-up rushing yards market for the Eagles’ top weapon is giving seven yards of headroom for the Under on Barkley’s rushing yards in the opening quarter of Super Bowl LIX.

I'm expecting Mahomes to attack with short and intermediate passes early and often to move the KC offense against Philly. The Eagles defense was excellent against the run and limiting deep passes during the regular season, and Mahomes also finished the regular season with a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt and career-high 67.5 completion percentage. More completions for shorter gains is exactly what we’re looking for from Mahomes in Super Bowl 59.

I bet this one in the NFC title game and he didn’t get there. I’m going back to the well. The Eagles need to get the ball in the hands of their best player any way they can. Barkley’s pass catching hasn’t been needed much in recent weeks, but projections all above 13 yards through the air with some close to 21 yards. The Chiefs bring pressure and Barkley is a viable checkdown option. He’s capable of putting this prop to bed in one catch and run.

The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Charlotte for a matchup with the injury-riddled Hornets. The Hornets Over/Under mark of 4-6-0 to the Under testifies to its lack of offensive production since LaMelo Ball hit the shelf. While Charlotte is an Under machine, Milwaukee has been underwhelming. The Bucks have dropped five of its last six, coming off a blowout loss at Oklahoma City. Wednesday offers Milwaukee a great bounce-back opportunity, and I expect the Bucks to grab it and cover the big number.

The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Charlotte for a matchup with the injury-riddled Hornets. The Hornets Over/Under mark of 4-6-0 to the Under testifies to its lack of offensive production since LaMelo Ball hit the shelf. While Charlotte is an Under machine, Milwaukee has been underwhelming. The Bucks have dropped five of its last six, coming off a blowout loss at Oklahoma City. Wednesday offers Milwaukee a great bounce-back opportunity, and I expect the Bucks to grab it and cover the big number.

The Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans meet again after Denver’s 12-point Monday night victory over the Pels. New Orleans shot 47% from downtown, but Jamaal Murray poured in 41 points to hand the Pels its sixth consecutive loss. New Orleans has dropped six straight, but they’re 2-0-0 ATS in its last two meetings as double-digit underdogs. I’m betting the Pels stay hot from downtown and keep this tilt close enough to cover the huge number.

The Creighton Bluejays are riding a seven-game winning streak when they hit the road to play the Providence Friars. Creighton has the one-two offensive punch of Ryan Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth, but KenPom’s 26th-best defense has more than fueled its 6-1-0 ATS away mark. Providence has an improving defense,  but its offense is inconsistent. The Friars are  6-5-1 ATS at home, but I’m betting on the red-hot Bluejays to cover as slight favorites.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons head west to take on the Stanford Cardinal. Both groups deploy a slow tempo. Wake Forest has the better defense, while Stanford has the better offense. Their earlier meeting soared past the game total, but the Demon Deacons defense is tough. Wake Forest is 3-4-0 to the Under as the away team, while Stanford is 5-8-0 to the Under at home.  I’m betting on the Wake Forest stop unit being ferocious, and Wednesday’s game total ends Under the oddsmakers' number.

Sam Burns has been solid at TPC Scottsdale the past two years with a T6-T3 run, and he also paced the field in true strokes gained putting during his T22 finish in this event in 2021. The five-time PGA Tour winner is also eyeing statistical correction to his ball striking, with his -0.21 strokes lost on approach per round over his past four events lagging well behind the +0.82 he gained across his prior five events. Of course, putting remains his strength, with Burns ranking seventh in this field in true strokes gained putting over the past calendar year, and I also value him finishing third in true strokes gained tee-to-green here a year ago.

It’s definitely a little boring to go to the top of the board, but Scottie Scheffler carded a T9 in his 2025 debut last week and is a two-time champion at TPC Scottsdale. He’s also paced the WM Phoenix Open field in each of the past two years in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach, and he paced this year’s field in the two metrics across his past 20 events, too. Add him finishing first on approach last week at Pebble, and I’m anticipating his unrivaled ball-striking leading the way to his third win in Scottsdale.